Factors Influencing Wishful Thinking and Predictions of Election Outcomes

Babad, Elisha; Hills, Michael D.; O’Driscoll, Michael

doi:10.1207/s15324834basp1304_6

Cited by 45 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These fi ndings agree with previous work on political forecasts (Babad and Yacobos, 1993;Babd, 1995Babd, , 1997Babad et al, 1992). The present fi ndings on wishful thinking support Hypothesis 3.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Sjöberg

2008

Journal of Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Four groups made forecasts of the outcome of the Swedish Parliamentary election in the fall of 2006. They consisted of members of the public, political scientists, journalists writing about domestic politics in Swedish daily newspapers, and journalists who were editing sections of readers' letters in daily newspapers. They estimated, using a 12-step category scale, which percentage of the votes that they believed seven parties would get in the election. Data were then obtained on the outcome of the election, and on the two opinions polls closest in time to it. When median forecasts were compared across groups, it was found that the group from the public was most successful in forecasting the outcome of the election. This was in spite of the fact that the median error made by individual members of that group was about 50% larger than the median error made by members of other groups. The two polls were less efficient than the group from the public and overestimated the span between the incumbent government and the opposition by a factor of 2. The members of the public and journalists showed some wishful thinking in their forecasts. There were large and consistent individual differences in forecasting ability. Men performed better than women, as did those who expressed more interest and knowledge in politics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Sjöberg

2008

Journal of Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…2. An explicit experimental instruction to be as objective and unbiased as possible in predicting game and election outcomes had a very small effect in reducing distortion in one study (Babad, 1987) and no effect at all in two other studies (Babad et al. 1992;Babad & Katz, 1991).…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Babad and his associates investigated wishful thinking in several sportsrelated and election settings (Babad, 1987, in soccer stadiums;Babad & Katz, 1991, in soccer stadiums and betting stations;Babad & Yacobos, 1993and Babad, Hills, & O'Driscoll, 1992, in the 1990 New Zealand general election). In these studies, respondents placed themselves into groups according to the direction and intensity of their preference and were subsequently asked to make predictions about game or election outcomes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Accurate Knowledge Reduce Wishful Thinking in Voters' Predictions of Election Outcomes?

Babad

1995

The Journal of Psychology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

About 3,000 Israeli voters were asked to predict the outcomes of the 1992 general election and to state their political preference. Political science students were found to possess more accurate knowledge than education students about some outcomes of the previous (1 988) election, but the predictions made by both groups varied as a function of their preferences, indicating a wishful thinking effect. Wishful thinking effects of the same magnitude were found for groups differing in the accuracy of their knowledge about the outcomes of the previous election and for respondents who had been provided with partial or full base-rate information about the outcomes of the previous election. Thus, accurate knowledge did not reduce the effects of wishful preferences on predictions. Respondents' predictions differed from the results of public opinion polls published at the same time in the Israeli printed media. The results were more compatible with a motivational than with a purely cognitive interpretation.

show abstract

“…In a series of experiments, social psychologists revealed that wishful thinking is widely present among sports fans and even sports bettors who ignore the odds of their favorite team to win (Babad 1987;Babad and Katz 1991). In electoral studies, the effect of wishful thinking has been explored in the U.S., Sweden, Israel and other democratic states (Granberg and Brent 1983;Babad et al 1992;Babad and Yacobos 1993;Babad 1995). All of the authors registered the operation of a wishful thinking mechanism among voters in predicting election outcomes.…”

Section: Economic Perceptions In Central and Eastern Europementioning

confidence: 99%

The Formation of Economic Perceptions in Post-Communist Countries of East Central Europe

Tverdova

2011

Polit Behav

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the early transition phase in post-communist Europe, citizens' perceptions of the national economy appeared more favorable than objective economic indicators would suggest. With triple and quadruple digit annual inflation rates and a severe economic contraction, there was a substantial portion of the population in these countries who still thought that the national economy had been and would be improving. Thus, sociotropic economic perceptions in the wake of the democratic transformation appeared to be disconnected from the real economic situation. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, it explores the link between objective economic indicators and public evaluations of the economy. Second, it investigates the microfoundations of economic perceptions. And finally, it tests a well-established proposition that political sophisticates are more accurate in their perceptions than their less informed counterparts. The findings of the study can be generalized to any political and economic system undergoing transition.Keywords Economic perceptions Á Post-communist Á Transition Á Economic voting Á Information shortcuts Á Accountability One of the grounding postulates of democratic theory is the principle of accountability. The theoretical operation of the accountability mechanism is quite simple: elected officials bear responsibility for their performance and receive reward or punishment from their constituency accordingly in the form of re-election or denial of a future political mandate. In reference to economic accountability, the mechanism presumes government responsibility for the state of the national economy, also known as economic voting (Lewis-Beck 1988; Page and Shapiro

show abstract

Factors Influencing Wishful Thinking and Predictions of Election Outcomes

Cited by 45 publications

References 1 publication

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Can Accurate Knowledge Reduce Wishful Thinking in Voters' Predictions of Election Outcomes?

The Formation of Economic Perceptions in Post-Communist Countries of East Central Europe

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About