Welded metal bellows are an elastic element widely used in the field of mechanical seals. The main objective of the present study was to investigate the reliability of welded metal bellows in mechanical seals under specified working conditions. To this end, a stress relaxation test bench was built to obtain the residual elastic force data of welded metal bellows under different compression loads in high-temperature environments. Then, the elastic force loss equation of the bellows was fitted. Moreover, a failure judgment form of welded metal bellows in the mechanical seal is proposed. According to the calculation relationship between the seal face pressure and the welded metal bellows’ elastic force, the elasticity force loss range of the bellows was 556–708 N. Finally, according to the elastic force loss equation, elastic force loss was determined. The maintenance time of the welded metal bellows, and the bellow’s failure limit state equation were determined, and the limit state equation was substituted into the center point method. The reliability of the welded metal bellows was 0.9958. The results show that the new failure criterion and the center point reliability calculation method proposed in this paper have certain practical value for the rapid reliability prediction of welded metal bellows.