Failure Probability of Flood Defence Structures/ Systems in Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges

Naulin, Marie; Kortenhaus, Andreas; Oumeraci, Hocine

doi:10.9753/icce.v32.management.13

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In addition, limit state equations for the failure modes of dikes, dunes and other types of struc-tures developed in former research projects such as FLOODsite (Allsop et al 2007) and ProDeich (Kortenhaus 2003), among others, have been used to calculate the failure probabilities of the flood defence structures. For these calculations, more than 80 limit state equations are available (Naulin et al 2010). In order to calculate failure probabilities of the flood defences, sections along the defence line with similar properties such as outline, geometric parameters, sea state parameters, geotechnical parameters, among others, were defined.…”

Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to calculate failure probabilities of the flood defences, sections along the defence line with similar properties such as outline, geometric parameters, sea state parameters, geotechnical parameters, among others, were defined. The ultimate result is the failure probability of the flood protection systems (and thus the flooding probability) as the first component of flood risk (Figure 12) (Naulin et al 2010).…”

Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this purpose, an overview and detailed parameterisation of all flood defence structures were performed based on an intensive data collection in cooperation with the local flood defence authorities, in order to analyse and map the flood defence structures by using a GIS environment (Naulin et al 2010). In addition, limit state equations for the failure modes of dikes, dunes and other types of struc-tures developed in former research projects such as FLOODsite (Allsop et al 2007) and ProDeich (Kortenhaus 2003), among others, have been used to calculate the failure probabilities of the flood defence structures.…”

Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a strong influence of the tidal dynamics of the North Sea with a mean high tide in Hamburg of 2.1 m above Normal Null (NN, datum for water level in Germany) (see Naulin et al 2010). In the past, Hamburg was affected by extreme storm surges.…”

Section: Pilot Sitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, it is intended to update and further develop missing limit state equations and fault trees for failure mechanisms or structures not yet considered (Naulin et al 2010).…”

Section: Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges (Xtremrisk)

Burzel

Dassanayake

Naulin³

et al. 2011

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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Extreme storm surges have frequently led to major damages also along the German coastline. The joint research project 'XtremRisK' was initiated to improve the understanding of risk-related issues due to extreme storm surges and to quantify the flood risk for two pilot sites at the open coast and in an estuarine area under present and future climate scenarios. In this context, an integrated flood risk analysis is performed based on the source-pathway-receptor concept under consideration of possible tangible and intangible losses. This paper describes the structure of the project, the methodology of the subprojects, and first results. Moreover, integration approaches are discussed. The results of 'XtremRisK' will be used to propose flood risk mitigation measures for the prospective end-users.

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Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: First Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Pilot Sitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, it is intended to update and further develop missing limit state equations and fault trees for failure mechanisms or structures not yet considered (Naulin et al 2010).…”

Section: Future Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges (Xtremrisk)

Burzel

Dassanayake

Naulin³

et al. 2011

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Characterization of Risks in Coastal Zones: A Review

Castillo¹,

Mendoza²,

Silva³

et al. 2012

CLEAN Soil Air Water

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Interest in sustainable development for the natural, socio‐economic, and cultural resources of coastal zones is growing worldwide. On the other hand, the range of threats to coastal zones increasingly posed by hydro‐meteorological natural phenomena has led to a trend in the analysis and assessment of risks to these areas. The available literature dealing with coastal risk assessment is quite wide, focusing mainly on the risk evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion resulting directly from the occurrence of extreme natural events. The risk assessment methodologies are usually specific to the conditions and available data of each country, society or location, though most have evolved to assess the risk concept more precisely and rigorously. However, there are still very few studies that present feasible and effective methodologies, which lead to the effective integration of risk analysis at all levels. In Mexico coastal risk analysis has barely begun despite our extensive coastline, which is highly vulnerable to the threat of tropical cyclones. This paper aims to give a broad view of the risk assessment methodologies which already exist, in order to provide a starting point for future efforts in Mexico and elsewhere.

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Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

Phillips

Brown

Bidlot

et al. 2017

JMSE

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Understanding the role of beach morphology in controlling wave overtopping volume will further minimise uncertainties in flood risk assessments at coastal locations defended by engineered structures worldwide. XBeach is used to model wave overtopping volume for a 1:200 year joint probability distribution of waves and water levels with measured, pre-and post-storm beach profiles. The simulation with measured bathymetry is repeated with and without morphological evolution enabled during the modelled storm event. This research assesses the role of morphology in controlling wave overtopping volumes for hazardous events that meet the typical design level of coastal defence structures. Results show that disabling storm-driven morphology under-represents modelled wave overtopping volumes by up to 39% under high H s conditions and has a greater impact on the wave overtopping rate than the variability applied within the boundary conditions due to the range of wave-water level combinations that meet the 1:200 year joint probability criterion. Accounting for morphology in flood modelling is therefore critical for accurately predicting wave overtopping volumes and the resulting flood hazard and to assess economic losses.

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Failure Probability of Flood Defence Structures/ Systems in Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges

Cited by 6 publications

References 11 publications

Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges (Xtremrisk)

Integrated Flood Risk Analysis for Extreme Storm Surges (Xtremrisk)

Characterization of Risks in Coastal Zones: A Review

Role of Beach Morphology in Wave Overtopping Hazard Assessment

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