Failure to replicate the JTC-bias in patients with psychotic disorders: A secondary analysis of a baseline assessment of a randomized controlled trial

Abstract

Background: The jumping to conclusions bias (JTC) is considered to be an important causal factor in theoretical models on the formation and maintenance of delusions. However, recent meta-analytic findings show a rather equivocal pattern of results regarding associations between JTC and delusions. Thus, the aim of the present preregistered study is to investigate in a large sample whether the JTC-bias is more pronounced in patients with psychotic disorders in comparison to controls and whether the JTC bias is associated with more severe delusional conviction, persecutory delusions and positive symptoms in general. All hypotheses were pre-specified in the trial proposal.Methods: Patients with psychotic disorders (n = 300) enrolled in a therapy trial and healthy controls (n = 51) conducted a variant of the beads task (fish task) as a measure for the JTC-bias at start of the trial. Further, clinical interviews were used to assess patients’ delusional severity and delusional conviction.Results: There were no statistically significant differences between patients with psychotic disorders (with 53% displaying the JTC-bias) and controls (41%). Furthermore, there were no statistically significant correlations between JTC measures and persecutory delusions, delusional conviction and positive symptoms.Conclusions: We found no evidence for hasty decisions in patients with psychotic disorders, possibly because the fish task induces a more deliberative reasoning style as compared to the traditional beads task. The lack of associations between JTC measures and delusion severity is in line with meta-analytic findings using a wide range of JTC task variants. JTC is not as ubiquitous as previously thought and may only manifest itself in certain situational contexts. Trial Registration: ISRCTN29242879 (isrctn.com), date of registration: April 12th 2006, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12345678

Aberrant adapting of beliefs under stress: a mechanism relevant to the formation of paranoia?

“…Surprisingly, however, we found no group differences for BADE and JTC, contradicting the findings from the bulk of previous work (for a review on BADE, see Eisenacher & Zink, 2017; for a meta-analysis on JTC, see Dudley et al, 2016). Nevertheless, several recent studies also failed to replicate deficits in JTC in psychosis (Pytlik et al, 2020;Moritz et al, 2020). Similar to Pytlik et al (2020), the present study had a 99% power to detect the effect found in Dudley et al (2016) (Hedges g = 0.52), rendering a β-error unlikely.…”

“…Nevertheless, several recent studies also failed to replicate deficits in JTC in psychosis (Pytlik et al, 2020;Moritz et al, 2020). Similar to Pytlik et al (2020), the present study had a 99% power to detect the effect found in Dudley et al (2016) (Hedges g = 0.52), rendering a β-error unlikely. Although the reasons for these diverging results remain unclear, both Pytlik et al (2020) and Moritz et al (2020) highlight that the specifics of the paradigms used may offer an explanation.…”

“…Similar to Pytlik et al (2020), the present study had a 99% power to detect the effect found in Dudley et al (2016) (Hedges g = 0.52), rendering a β-error unlikely. Although the reasons for these diverging results remain unclear, both Pytlik et al (2020) and Moritz et al (2020) highlight that the specifics of the paradigms used may offer an explanation. Such paradigms specifics include, for instance, the analysis of the probabilities of a correct decision based on the specific information sequence as well as misunderstandings of the instructions of the cognitive bias tasks (see Balzan, Delfabbro, & Galletly, 2012).…”

Thinking preferences and conspiracy belief: intuitive thinking and the jumping to conclusions-bias as a basis for the belief in conspiracy theories

“…In this regard, the correlation between DTD and CB as well as the significantly higher CB in subjects who displayed the JTC-bias strongly suggests that this may be the case. On the other hand, recent meta-analyses (30,31) and a large scale study (50), did not find a statistically significant association between the presence of a JTC-bias and delusion severity, although patients with psychotic disorders and delusions presented a more pronounced JTC-bias in comparison to controls. While the correlation between DTD in the fish task and CB was of small effect size (r = -.16), we found a medium effect size (Cohen's d = .53) regarding the group differences between subjects who jumped to conclusions and those who did not.…”