Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”

Ring²,

Lindner³

et al. 2014

ACS

Self Cite

The most recent US Congressional climate bill, H.R.5271 in 2014, proposes to reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide relative to their 2005 value by 80% in 2050. This bill does not provide a rationale for this rapid phase down of CO2 emissions. In 2012, we crafted a Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate such that: 1) The cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developing countries equal the cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developed countries; 2) The maximum global warming above preindustrial temperature does not exceed the 2˚C (3.6˚F) chosen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"; and 3) The phase out of CO2 emissions begins as late as possible in the 21 st century and proceeds at the slowest possible pace, consistent with objectives 1 and 2. The Fair Plan begins in 2020 and reduces the world's emissions to zero in 2100. In the Fair Plan the emissions of the developed countries, including the United States, reach 80% below their 2005 values in 2094, that is, 44 years later than proposed by H.R.5271. While it is imperative that humanity begins to wean itself from fossil fuels no later than 2020, the transition from fossil to non-fossil energy need not be completed before 2100 if all countries follow their Fair Plan trajectories.

Section: Comparison Of the 2014 Bill And The Fair Planmentioning

confidence: 68%

Fair Plan 5: A Critical Appraisal of Five Congressional Bills to Reduce US CO2 Emissions

Ring²,

Lindner³

et al. 2014

ACS

Self Cite

“…In our five earlier Fair Plan papers, FP1 -FP5 [1]- [5], we have taken the Reference Concentration Plan 8.5 (RCP-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario [6] as our Reference case, which is the way the world would likely emit GHGs if either there were no consequent climate change or if we were completely ignorant thereof. The RCP-8.5 was developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis near Vienna, Austria, to be one of four emission scenarios developed for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [7].…”

Section: Reference Casementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in FP1 -FP5 [1]- [5], the Reference case from 2101 to 2500 is the Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5 (ECP-8.5) [10]. Thereafter, through 3000, the emission rate is kept equal to its value in 2500.…”

Section: Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fair Plan 6: Quo Vadis the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 Plan?

Ring

Cross³

2015

ACS

Self Cite

In our Fair Plan 5 paper, we compared the CO 2 emissions of the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 (80/50) Plan with the CO 2 emissions of our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate. We found that the 80/50 Plan reduced CO 2 emissions more rapidly than necessary to achieve the principal objective of the Fair Plan: to keep Global Warming (GW) within the 2˚C (3.6˚F) limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Here, we ask the "What If" question: "What would the GW of the 80/50 Plan be post 2100 if its CO 2 emissions post 2100 were kept at their 2100 value?" We find that although the GW of the 80/50 Plan decreases slightly over part of the 21st century, it does not remain constant thereafter. Rather, the GW of the 80/50 Plan begins to increase in 2088, exceeds that of the Fair Plan beginning in 2230, exceeds the 2˚C (3.6˚F) limit of the UNFCCC in 2596, and ends the millennium at 2.7˚C (4.8˚F). Thus, not only does the 80/50 Plan phase out humanity's CO 2 emissions faster than necessary to fulfill the UNFCCC constraint, it also fails that constraint if its CO 2 emissions post 2100 are kept at their 2100 value. Accordingly, we believe that the Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate is superior to the 80/50 Plan.

Fair Plan 7: Earth’s Climate Future = Humanity’s Choice

Ring²,

Cross³

et al. 2015

ACS

Self Cite

How to cite this paper: Schlesinger, M.E., Ring, M., Cross, E.F. AbstractEarth's climate future is in the hands of humanity. If emissions of greenhouse gases remain unabated, Earth's climate will return to the climate of the Late Eocene, 35 million years ago, when sea level was 73 meters (240 feet) higher than today. Should that occur, many coastal cities around the world would be inundated. Moreover the Global Warming of this unabated Reference case will be comparable to the Global Warming from the Last Glacial Maximum 21,000 years ago to the beginning of the Holocene interglacial climate 11,000 years ago. However, this human-caused Global Warming would occur 50 times faster than that caused by nature. Alternatively, humanity can mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions to keep Global Warming below the 2˚C maximum adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". This mitigation can either be done rapidly, as in the "80/50" Plan to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions 80% by 2050, or much more slowly, from 2020 to 2100, as in the Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate. The Fair Plan is a compromise between doing nothing, as in the Reference case, and rapidly reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, as in the 80/50 Plan. Regardless of the Plan chosen to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to keep Global Warming below the UNFCCC limit of 2˚C (3.6˚F), it should not be tantamount to our saying to one of our planetary spacecraft, Bon Voyage, call us when you get to your planetary destination. Rather, as with our spacecraft, the chosen climate-change policy should be monitored throughout the 21 st century and Midcourse Corrections made thereto as needed to keep our "Climate Spacecraft" on track to achieve its "Climate Target". KeywordsEarth's Climate Future M. E. Schlesinger et al. 346