Farmers' decision to use drought early warning system in developing countries

Sharafi, Lida; Zarafshani, Kiumars; Keshavarz, Marzieh; Azadi, Hossein; Passel, Steven Van

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142761

Cited by 22 publications

(23 citation statements)

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“…From the perspective of fiscal forewarning, early research mainly depends on personal development experience, and there will always be some deviation in financial alert [2]. With the development of financial alert theory and the introduction of statistical theory, development of big data technology provides new research methods for risk warning in various fields [3,4]. Although there are many researches on enterprise financial alert at home and abroad at this stage, there are still no good migration request research results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Optimized BP Neural Network In Financial Alert System

Qiaoyi

2022

Journal of Function Spaces

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The development of economic globalization not only brings development opportunities for enterprise development but also causes the rapid changes of economic environment. Global enterprises are facing many development challenges. It is very significant to implement financial alert. However, most of the existing financial alert systems are based on traditional quantitative analysis and cannot face the demand of big data growth. Based on this, main body of a book studies and analyzes the request of optimized BP neural network in financial alert system. Based on the financial early warning and a brief analysis of the development requirements of BP neural network, this paper establishes a financial early warning model for BP neural network. Considering the shortcomings of BP neural network, genetic algorithm is used to optimize the specification. Finally, a new reference scheme is provided for economic early warning. And use the following steps to create a list, taking into account the volume analysis in the conceptual design. The emulation results indicates that the optimized BP neural network can accelerate the convergence, has strong stability, and has higher accuracy in financial alert.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Optimized BP Neural Network In Financial Alert System

Qiaoyi

2022

Journal of Function Spaces

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“…These interactions and assessments will facilitate decision making and policies that can be implemented over a projected timescale providing relevant skills and desired drought management or policy outcomes (Bizikova et al, 2019). Overall, policy makers should come up with appropriate skills and adaptive strategies that will nest robust surveillance, early alert programs, impact evaluations, risk reduction measures, drought preparedness strategies and disaster response services end users (Sharafi et al, 2021).…”

Section: Policy Making Skillsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As part of drought planning and preparedness, farmers can be trained on resource-saving strategies including use of adapted livestock breeds and crop varieties because they remain productive during drought (Eriksen et al, 2005; O’Farrell et al, 2009). Overall, farmers and professionals in the agriculture industry require knowledge and skills to plan, prepare and mitigate drought to sustain agriculture production through training and awareness platforms provided by the government and/ or private organisations (Ifejika Speranza, 2013; Sharafi et al, 2021). Drought preparedness planning specialists’ inputs are highly valued in decision making and development of policy frameworks as they work with government and private sectors to support farmers in face of drought (Wilhite et al, 2014; Zhang et al, 2018; FAO, 2019).…”

Section: Development Of Key Emerging Agricultural Skills For Drought ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought's implications on agricultural skills in South Africa

et al. 2022

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Drought is an inevitable feature of South Africa's climate. Its slow onset and recurrence threaten livelihoods dependent on agriculture. Responses to drought have mostly been ex-post impact management with little ex-ante resilience building in vulnerable areas. Implementation of ex-ante strategies has been severely challenged by lack of skilled human capital to predict and respond timely and effectively to the impacts of drought, particularly in smallholder farming areas. Human capital development, should therefore, be prioritised as a key drought management strategy. In this regard, it is important to determine farmers and agricultural professionals’ current and future needs for capacity development in drought management. This is important given that drought is projected to increase risks and introduce new ones with far more devastating impacts on agriculture. The current review outlines the implications of drought on agricultural skills in South Africa and the way forward.

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“…In Iran, a statistical downscaling model using Palmer Drought Severity Index values from 1995 to 2014 predicted decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature for 2019-2048 in Fars province with coefficients of determination of 0.63 and 0.95, respectively, between simulated and observed data [91]. Sharafi et al (2021) studied farmer decision making on adoption of a DEWS in one region of Iran to understand why uptake was lower than expected. Farmers reported three major considerations: information being from valid sources, information that increases their income, and information provided in simple language.…”

Section: Nationalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, not only maximizing profit, but also socioeconomic and sociopsychological considerations play a role in farmers' adoption of DEWS. As their study was of limited scope, the authors stressed that more research of rainfed farming households is needed [92].…”

Section: Nationalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Early Warning in Agri-Food Systems

Ginkel¹,

Biradar²

2021

Climate

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Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of impacts, requiring drought early warning systems (DEWSs) that give current assessments and sufficient notice for active risk management. While most droughts are relatively slow in onset, often resulting in late responses, flash droughts are becoming more frequent, and their sudden onset poses challenging demands on DEWSs for timely communication. We examine several DEWSs at global, regional, and national scales, with a special emphasis on agri-food systems. Many of these have been successful, such as some of the responses to 2015–2017 droughts in Africa and Latin America. Successful examples show that early involvement of stakeholders, from DEWS development to implementation, is crucial. In addition, regional and global cooperation can cross-fertilize with new ideas, reduce reaction time, and raise efficiency. Broadening partnerships also includes recruiting citizen science and including seemingly subjective indigenous knowledge that can improve monitoring, data collection, and uptake of response measures. More precise and more useful DEWSs in agri-food systems will prove even more cost-effective in averting the need for emergency responses, improving global food security.

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Farmers' decision to use drought early warning system in developing countries

Cited by 22 publications

References 50 publications

Application of Optimized BP Neural Network In Financial Alert System

Application of Optimized BP Neural Network In Financial Alert System

Drought's implications on agricultural skills in South Africa

Drought Early Warning in Agri-Food Systems

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