Farmers’ Intention to Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture in the Red River Delta Biosphere Reserve (Vietnam): A Combination of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT)

Abstract

Coastal communities living in the low delta areas of Vietnam are increasingly vulnerable to tropical storms and related natural hazards of global climate change. Particularly in the Red River Delta Biosphere Reserve (RRDBR), farmers change the crop structure and diversify agricultural systems to adapt to the changing climate. The paper deals with a quantitative approach combined with behavior theories and surveyed data to analyze farmers’ intention to climate change adaptation in agriculture. Based on the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), seven constructs are developed to a questionnaire surveying 526 local farmers: risk perception, belief, habit, maladaptation, subjective norm, adaptation assessment, and adaptation intention. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is implemented to extract eight factors and to quantify the relationship between protective behavior factors with the adaptation intention of the surveyed farmers. Two bootstrap samples of sizes 800 and 1200 are generated to estimate the coefficients and standard errors. The SEM result suggests a regional and three local structural models for climate change adaptation intention of farmers living in the RRDBR. Farmers show a higher adaptation intention when they perceive higher climate risks threatening their physical health, finances, production, social relationships, and psychology. In contrast, farmers are less likely to intend to adapt when they are subject to wishful thinking, deny the climate risks, or believe in fatalism.

Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions to climate change in the central coastal region of Vietnam

“…The farmers, who perceived the major impact of climate change on agricultural production (B = 2.605; p = 0.013; OR = 13.528), or the significant efficacy of adaptation measures (B = 1.449; p = 0.071; OR = 4.261) were more likely to adapt to climate change. These findings are in line with earlier conclusions of Dang et al (2014) and Luu et al (2019) that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate change when they perceive higher risks to their farming and greater effectiveness of adaptation measures.…”

“…Additionally, the factors related to household resources such as the number of labors, income level, nonfarm income, access to credit were also found to be associated with farmers' adaptation decisions (Deressa et al 2009;Uy et al 2015). Besides, the important role of factors related to the perception of climate change was also confirmed through its contributions to adaptation of farmers (Dang et al 2014;Luu et al 2019). The descriptive statistics of the explanatory variables are briefly described in Table 2.…”

“…Also, cognitive factors were included by some studies to clarify their connection to climate change adaptation. The studies by Dang et al (2014) and Luu et al (2019) found that adaptation probability is higher for those who are properly aware of potential risks of climate change and the efficacy of adaptation measures.…”

“…Several studies on the same topic were also conducted in the specific conditions of Vietnam. Key factors driving farmers' adaptation decisions, hence, were revealed such as socio-demographic features (Mishra and Pede 2017;Thanh 2016;Thoai et al 2018), risk perception (Dang et al 2014;Luu et al 2019), social capital (Nam 2011), or geographical location (Waibel et al 2018;Ho and Shimada 2019). However, there are relatively few studies, especially in central Vietnam, that consider how perceptions of climate change severity and adaptation measure efficacy affect farmers' adaptation decision.…”

Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

“…Studies have found that individuals’ perceived capacity, perceived vulnerability, motivation to adapt, and other social and cognitive variables are key in understanding adaptation behaviors [ 9 , 13 , 25 , 26 ]. The ways farmers perceived their capacity to adopt new adaptation behaviors, and the risks they are exposed to have been shown to drive the adoption of new agricultural practices and pro-environmental behaviors [ 13 , 26 , 28 – 30 ]. While existing research demonstrates a link between climate perceptions, beliefs, and climate change adaptation amongst the general public [e.g.…”