Farmers’ Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

Abstract

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers’ decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California’s Central Valley

“…However, due to increasing unreliability and rising costs of water supplies, other methods to remove or decompose rice straw (e.g., increased tillage or straw baling and removal) may increasingly replace winter flooding [61]. Some evidence suggests that risks related to climate change as well as economic risks perceived by farmers can factor into their land management decision-making [79]. Thus, our worst-year scenario results may be representative of future land use decisions by farmers in CVCA regarding future risk of drought- and economically-based water insecurity.…”

Exploring Farmers’ Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptation Intentions: Empirical Evidence from Austria

“…Third, scientific knowledge on farmers’ perspectives on climate change adaptation is limited to a small region and selected adaptation measures (Pröbstl-Haider et al 2016 ). It lacks on a profound understanding of Austrian farmers’ climate change and adaptation appraisal even though it has been argued that such information could be useful to inform adaptation engagement strategies, outreach efforts, and the design of agricultural and climate policies (Arbuckle et al 2014 ).…”

Agricultural Land Abandonment and Farmers’ Perceptions of Land Use Change in the Indus Plains of Pakistan: A Case Study of Sindh Province

“…Farmers are key decision-makers in choosing land use patterns and production systems in a community [20]. Farmers' perceptions of LUC and ALA have been discussed in a few studies [17].…”

“…Farmers' perceptions of LUC and ALA have been discussed in a few studies [17]. Pröbstl-Haider et al [20] investigated the impact of climate change on landscape change and farmers' preferences for Austria's future agricultural land use. LUC was observed in the area as farmers increased forestation to mitigate the effects of climate change [21,22].…”