Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study

Samset, B. H.; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Andrews, Timothy; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, Dagmar; Kasoar, Matthew; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Kirkevåg, Alf; Lamarque, J. F.; Olivié, Dirk; Richardson, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Shine, Keith P.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Voulgarakis, Apostolos

doi:10.1002/2016gl068064

Cited by 228 publications

(354 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The ratio of total precipitation change to temperature change is consistently around 0.07-0.08 mm day −1 K −1 for all SO 2 perturbations. This equates to around 2.2-2.5% K −1 , and agrees very well with the hydrological sensitivities to global temperature changes that have been established in previous multi-model studies, 16,17 and in particular falls within the range of the "slow" precipitation responses identified as being due to long-term, ocean-mediated temperature change in Table 2 of ref. 18 , which reported 2.1-3.1% K −1 .…”

Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Sulphate aerosol has minimal atmospheric absorption, and so, as expected from theoretical arguments and from other modelling studies, [16][17][18] global mean precipitation change appears to scale closely with global mean surface temperature change. The ratio of total precipitation change to temperature change is consistently around 0.07-0.08 mm day −1 K −1 for all SO 2 perturbations.…”

Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionssupporting

confidence: 55%

“…The global mean changes in SO 2 emissions, effective radiative forcing (ERF), and the global surface temperature and precipitation responses, are summarised in Table 1. We note that the climate model used here also produced the strongest response to sulphate aerosol changes out of nine models that participated in the recent Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, 16 and so the magnitude of the responses seen here is likely an upper bound. However, our focus here is more on the relative changes and pattern of response from different regions.…”

Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionsmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…The magnitude of the temperature response to a regional aerosol emissions removal of this kind has been found to vary substantially across current-generation composition-climate models, 16,32 and the extent to which other full-complexity models will show the same projection onto internal modes is unknown. However, many features of the northern hemisphere pattern of response seen here also appear in this model's response to other forcing agents like CO 2 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions

2018

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Anthropogenic aerosol forcing is spatially heterogeneous, mostly localised around industrialised regions like North America, Europe, East and South Asia. Emission reductions in each of these regions will force the climate in different locations, which could have diverse impacts on regional and global climate. Here, we show that removing sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from any of these northern-hemisphere regions in a global composition-climate model results in significant warming across the hemisphere, regardless of the emission region. Although the temperature response to these regionally localised forcings varies considerably in magnitude depending on the emission region, it shows a preferred spatial pattern independent of the location of the forcing. Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, we show that the structure of the response is tied to existing modes of internal climate variability in the model. This has implications for assessing impacts of emission reduction policies, and our understanding of how climate responds to heterogeneous forcings.

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Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionssupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Modelling Of Regional Aerosol Emission Reductionsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions

2018

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“…The nine models used in this study are listed in Table 1. A more detailed description of PDRMIP and its initial findings are given in Samset et al (2016) and Myhre et al (2017). 15…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Mediterranean Precipitation Response to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Tang

Shindell

Samset

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on 25Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare Mediterranean precipitation responses to individual forcing agents in a set of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean, and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi

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Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate‐altering pollutants

Shindell

2016

Earth's Future

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Climate change damages agriculture, causing deteriorating food security and increased malnutrition. Many studies have examined the role of distinct physical processes, but impacts have not been previously attributed to individual pollutants. Using a simple model incorporating process-level results from detailed models, here I show that although carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the largest driver of climate change, other drivers appear to dominate agricultural yield changes. I calculate that anthropogenic emissions to date have decreased global agricultural yields by 9.5 ± 3.0%, with roughly 93% stemming from non-CO 2 emissions, including methane (−5.2 ± 1.7%) and halocarbons (−1.4 ± 0.4%). The differing impacts stem from atmospheric composition responses: CO 2 fertilizes crops, offsetting much of the loss induced by warming; halocarbons do not fertilize; methane leads to minimal fertilization but increases surface ozone which augments warming-induced losses. By the end of the century, strong CO 2 mitigation improves agricultural yields by ∼3 ± 5%. In contrast, strong methane and hydrofluorocarbon mitigation improve yields by ∼16 ± 5% and ∼5 ± 4%, respectively. These are the first quantitative analyses to include climate, CO 2 and ozone simultaneously, and hence, additional studies would be valuable. Nonetheless, as policy makers have leverage over pollutant emissions rather than isolated processes, the perspective presented here may be more useful for decision making than that in the prior work upon which this study builds. The results suggest that policies should target a broad portfolio of pollutant emissions in order to optimize mitigation of societal damages.

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Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study

Cited by 228 publications

References 33 publications

Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions

Similar spatial patterns of global climate response to aerosols from different regions

Mediterranean Precipitation Response to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate‐altering pollutants

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