In recent years, with the continuous development of the national economy, the state and people have a higher demand for the service level of the highway, which also requires highway managers to have a more accurate prediction of the running state of the highway. So this paper proposes an Elman neural network highway state prediction method considering the risky driving behavior. In this method, expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process are used to calculate the weight of highway risk driving behavior, and then Elman neural network is used to establish the highway state recognition model based on the weight and traffic flow data. Finally, the data of expressways within 4 days is used as the sample training model, and the data of the fifth day is used as the test sample for testing. The results show that the model has a high accuracy for predicting the future traffic status, and it can also provide reference and support for the active traffic early warning and management.