Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns

Abstract

Range shifts have been documented in many organisms, and climate change has been implicated as a contributing driver of latitudinal and altitudinal range modifications. However, little is known about what species trait(s) allow for faster environmental tracking and improved capacity for distribution expansions. We used data for 416 species of moths, and show that range limits in Sweden have shifted to the north by on average 52.4 km per decade between 1973 and 2014. When also including non-expanding species, average expansion rate was 23.2 km per decade. The rate of boundary shifts increased with increasing levels of inter-individual variation in colour patterns and decreased with increasing latitude. The association with colour patterns indicate that variation in this functionally important trait enables species to cope with novel and changing conditions. Northern range limits also increased with average abundance and decreased with increasing year-to-year abundance fluctuations, implicating production of dispersers as a driver of range dynamics. Studies of terrestrial animals show that rates of poleward shifts differ between taxonomic groups, increase over time, and depend on study duration and latitude. Knowledge of how distribution shifts change with time, location, and species characteristics may improve projections of responses to climate change and aid the protection of biodiversity.

Variable color patterns influence continental range size and species–area relationships on islands

“…Species with more variable color patterns that are more abundant on the mainland might possibly contribute more long‐distance dispersers, thereby increasing the probability of initial colonization and reducing the risk of extinction once established (Forsman et al. , Betzholtz et al. , Yildirim et al.…”

“…This was done to partially account for greater similarity than expected by chance in response variables and ecological traits among species that are, on average, more closely related, although without completely removing effects of similarity owing to shared ancestry (Forsman et al. , , Betzholtz et al. ).…”

To What Extent Can Existing Research Help Project Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Aquatic Environments? A Review of Methodological Approaches

“…Yet, the approach and spatiotemporal scale of most field surveys is such that behavioural responses to climate change in the form of shifts in the timing of seasonal activities [13,14], individual movements and species range shifts [9,11,12] likely have gone undetected in many studies. Interpretation and comparisons of results regarding range shifts across studies is complicated further by the finding in a recent meta-analysis of studies of terrestrial organisms that rates of range shifts depend on both time period and study duration [33]. Given that estimated rates of range shifts increase with decreasing study duration [33], there is a risk that shorter studies overestimate climate change impacts.…”

“…Interpretation and comparisons of results regarding range shifts across studies is complicated further by the finding in a recent meta-analysis of studies of terrestrial organisms that rates of range shifts depend on both time period and study duration [33]. Given that estimated rates of range shifts increase with decreasing study duration [33], there is a risk that shorter studies overestimate climate change impacts. …”

“…Comparisons of observational studies carried out in different areas can potentially generate similar insights. For instance, results from a meta-analysis of studies of terrestrial organisms indicate that rates of poleward range margin shifts vary among studies and decrease with increasing mid-latitude [33].…”