Fatalism, Causal Reasoning, and Natural Hazards

Abstract

Fatalism about natural disasters hinders action to prepare for those disasters, and overcoming this fatalism is one key element to preparing people for these disasters. Research by Bostrom and colleagues shows that failure to act often reflects gaps and misconceptions in citizen’s mental models of disasters. Research by McClure and colleagues shows that fatalistic attitudes reflect people’s attributing damage to uncontrollable natural causes rather than controllable human actions, such as preparation. Research shows which precise features of risk communications lead people to see damage as preventable and to attribute damage to controllable human actions. Messages that enhance the accuracy of mental models of disasters by including human factors recognized by experts lead to increased preparedness. Effective messages also communicate that major damage in disasters is often distinctive and reflects controllable causes. These messages underpin causal judgments that reduce fatalism and enhance preparation. Many of these messages are not only beneficial but also newsworthy. Messages that are logically equivalent but are differently framed have varying effects on risk judgments and preparedness. The causes of harm in disasters are often contested, because they often imply human responsibility for the outcomes and entail significant cost.

Ke garne? How Values and Worldviews Influence Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Case Study From Mustang, Nepal

“…He considers social and cultural aspects of Nepali society-mainly fatalistic attitudes along with the evasion of responsibility-as the main barriers to progress in Nepal. Fatalistic beliefs may prevent people from taking precautionary action against natural hazards, as nature is often seen as uncontrollable and unpreventable (McClure et al 2007(McClure et al , 2010McClure 2017). We also see this correlation in our results, but we can show that fatalistic beliefs are not evenly spread among the lodge owners: while self-reliant overperformers showed a belowaverage fatalistic orientation and were most prepared and supportive of prevention activities, the disengaged underperformers, least engaged in PSP activities, shared above-average fatalistic beliefs (see Table 3).…”

A narrative inquiry into Vietnamese migrants' experiences of disaster risk reduction

“…Fatalism in disaster research has been viewed as attitudes and beliefs that centre the uncontrollability and overwhelming force of natural hazards rather than the controllability of risk reduction actions (McClure, 2017). Health and disaster research on fatalisms tends to adopt cognition-focused approach where fatalism is considered an irrational and actioninhibiting belief or attitude and hence, a target for intervention (D. Johnston et al, 2013;Keeley et al, 2009;McClure et al, 2001;Yong et al, 2017).…”

“…In cognition-focused disaster research, fatalism is correlated to other psychological constructs, such as high levels of helplessness and low levels of internal locus of control (i.e., the attribution of outcomes to an individual's own actions) (McClure, 2017). There has been research that considered the role of external influences on fatalism, such as how media reporting that sensationalises natural forces as causes for post-disaster damages can lead to high levels of fatalism amongst the public (D. Johnston et al, 2013;McClure et al, 2001).…”

“…An underlying assumption of such research is that people hold fatalistic beliefs and attitudes towards disasters because they are misinformed or misunderstand the mitigating role of human actions, which can range from preparing emergency kits to designing resilient buildings, in post-disaster outcomes. As such, fatalistic beliefs and attitudes are regarded as irrational and invalid, and correcting them remains the goal of cognition-focused disaster research (D. Johnston et al, 2013;McClure, 2017).…”

“…As highlighted earlier, the notion of fatalism is commonly considered in disaster research. According to Johnston et al (2013) and McClure (2017), fatalism is viewed as a belief or an attitude that hinders disaster preparedness. However, it is useful to examine social functions and values of fatalism (Drew & Schoenberg, 2011;Keeley et al, 2009).…”