Importance:
If changes over time in trauma care apply to both firearm injuries and motor vehicle crashes (MVC) similarly, differences in mechanism-specific case-fatality trends may suggest changes over time in injury severity.
Objective:
We analyzed national trends in case-fatality percentages at level I and II trauma centers for injuries due to MVC, firearm assault, self-inflicted firearm injury, and unintentional firearm injury by age. We also analyzed trends in injury severity scores (ISS) and the percentage of out-of-hospital deaths by mechanism.
Design/Setting/Participants:
We conducted a repeated cross-sectional measures analysis from 2003–2013 using two data sources: 1) the National Trauma Data Bank National Sample Program with survey weights to estimate annual median ISS, total injured and total died at level I and II trauma centers, and 2) the Centers for Disease Control Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research for percentages of out-of-hospital deaths.
Methods:
We calculated annual case-fatality percentage (total died/total injured) by mechanism across three age groups: 1)15–34, 2) 35–54, and 3) ≥ 55, and five categories of ISS. We performed linear regression to estimate annual trends in case-fatality percentage by mechanism, age-group, and ISS. We estimated annual trends in percentages of out-of-hospital deaths and median ISS by mechanism. Sensitivity analyses included the Durbin-Watson statistic for autocorrelation and Prais-Winsten regression models.
Results:
Self-inflicted firearm injury and assault with a firearm had the two highest overall case-fatality percentages (42.8% and 11.1%, respectively). The injury case-fatality percentage was lower each year for MVC but did not change for any firearm intent overall, or for any age group. Overall, median ISS increased annually for firearm suicide (0.31 9%CI 0.00, 0.61). The annual percentage of out-of-hospital deaths was lower each year for MVCs (−0.24 95% CI −0.43, −0.05) but not for any firearm intents. In sensitivity analyses, the annual percentage of out-of-hospital deaths for MVC no longer showed a decline.
Conclusions and Relevance:
Stagnant case-fatality percentages for firearm injuries juxtaposed to improvements for MVCs across age-groups and ISS categories suggests worsening severity of firearm injuries over the study period.