Fatality risk and its application to the seismic performance assessment of a building

Sinković, Nuša Lazar; Dolšek, Matjaž

doi:10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.110108

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…: 35, 36). Enter Equation with P ef and L Df and obtain α. Enter Equation with α and calculate EAL D . Estimate the ratio between maximum indirect and direct loss R I/D , based on the construction use. Enter Equation with α and R I/D and calculate EAL I+D . Design possible strengthening measure to decrease P eC and recalculate both EALs, repeating steps 6–9. Design possible measures to decrease P ef and recalculate both EALs, repeating steps 6–9. While P eC may need to be taken below typical code values, in order to ensure a sufficiently low collapse risk to protect human life, 24 the value of P ef depends on economic considerations; therefore, it will be appropriate to calculate the breakeven time, considering the cost of intervention and the EAL reduction.…”

Section: Procedural Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A reasonable return period value for the case of Italy, with reference to the Italian building code, 23 may be assumed around T C = 1000 years (i.e., P eC = 0.001), which may be raised to 2000 years in case of relevant consequences and reduced to 500 years for low importance buildings. The decision on this threshold when directly linking to expected casualties could be associated with the acceptable fatality threshold, with recent work 24 having discussed the possibility of linking these two for a given occupancy type and building, for example. The corresponding level of direct loss is L DC = 100%, indicating that collapse implies a complete economic loss of the building, which is of more direct interest to the discussion presented here although when uncertainties are considered in estimating repair costs, this value may exceed 100% but the general point remains.…”

Section: Development Of a Practical Formulation For Loss Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While P eC may need to be taken below typical code values, in order to ensure a sufficiently low collapse risk to protect human life, 24 the value of P ef depends on economic considerations; therefore, it will be appropriate to calculate the breakeven time, considering the cost of intervention and the EAL reduction.…”

Section: Procedural Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Towards a practical loss‐based design approach and procedure

Calvi

O’Reilly

Andreotti

2021

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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Performance-based design was first envisaged in the early 1990s and has become a mantra in conceptual seismic design. However, practical approaches to be possibly introduced in building codes are not readily available, to say the least, though some can be found in the literature. What is essentially missing is some correlation between structural response parameters and expected monetary losses, at a level of simplicity comparable with the force-or displacementbased approaches applied to design in everyday practice. The purpose of this conceptual paper is to provide the basics of a formulation that may evolve into such a practical loss-based approach.

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Section: Procedural Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Development Of a Practical Formulation For Loss Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Towards a practical loss‐based design approach and procedure

Calvi

O’Reilly

Andreotti

2021

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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“…In a more general case, however, the definition of target probability of limit state exceeding due to earthquakes can be related to fatality risk or the performance of the system (e.g. [42][43][44][45][46]) which was, not addressed in the study presented in the paper for simplicity reasons.…”

Section: Description Of Conventional Conditional Risk-based and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic performance assessment of non-code-conforming and code-conforming supporting structures of elevated tanks using conventional and risk-based decision models

Caprinozzi

Dolšek

2021

Engineering Structures

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The seismic performance of the supporting structure of the replica of an elevated tank that collapsed during the Kocaeli earthquake and its variant designed according to Eurocode 8 provisions was investigated. First, the performance of the tank was verified for the Kocaeli ground motion. Results of non-linear seismic response history analysis using simplified models accounting for different tank filling levels showed that the simplified model could provide qualitatively the same damage as were observed during the earthquake, while the seismic performance of the code-conforming tank was satisfactory. Then, the seismic performance assessment of the non-code-and code-conforming tanks was further investigated using the conventional decision model, which accounts for the demand-to-capacity ratio given the seismic design action, the conditional risk-based decision model and the risk-based decision model which utilise, respectively, the probability of exceeding a designated limit state for a given design seismic action and for a given period. The seismic performance of the non-code-conforming elevated tank was found insufficient by any of the three decision models, which indicated the need for action towards risk reduction for such structures. The opposite was realised for the code-conforming tank. However, the conventional decision model may be misleading because it indicated that the structure might be considered overdesigned, while risk-based decision model showed that the seismic performance of the code-conforming tank was close to the target value, set to 1% in 50 years. In the future, risk-targeted design approaches can improve decision-making in the design of critical components of industrial facilities.

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“…In their approach, they considered the risk of fatality due to the collapse of buildings. Later on, Lazar Sinković and Dolšek (2020) [14] demonstrated a fatality risk-based decision model for the performance assessment of buildings with an emphasis on the consequences of the collapse of the building. Determining a tolerated level of risk, however, is a challenging task.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

Celano

Dolšek

2021

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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The rapid expansion of the built environment has resulted in the coexistence of industrial facilities and urban centres. Following recent major earthquakes throughout the world, it has become clear that multi-hazard domino effects can significantly increase the risk of fatalities, environmental problems and losses. This complex phenomenon is not yet well understood. In this paper, the problem is treated by decomposing it into several subproblems which are described by simplified probabilistic models. These models are then coupled with the Monte Carlo method to estimate the annual probability of fatality for an individual who is continuously standing in a location of interest and to estimate fatality risk maps for an area of interest. Emphasis is placed on considering multi-hazard domino effects, which can be triggered within an industrial area due to the damage caused by earthquakes. Thus it is considered that fatalities can be caused: a) as a direct consequence of seismic damage to a unit b) as a direct physical and/or chemical consequence due to the loss of containment of hazardous material, and c) as a consequence of domino triggered by physical and chemical events such as fire, explosion, and toxic dispersion. The capabilities of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by calculating fatality risk maps for a hypothetical industrialized urban area. It is shown that disregarding multi-hazard domino effects in the estimation of fatality risk could lead to significant underestimation of the fatality risk in an industrialized urban area. Thus, it is necessary to account for multi-hazard domino effects. However, different teams of engineers can enhance the models for the probability of fatality due to various phenomena, which will improve the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

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Fatality risk and its application to the seismic performance assessment of a building

Cited by 12 publications

References 24 publications

Towards a practical loss‐based design approach and procedure

Towards a practical loss‐based design approach and procedure

Seismic performance assessment of non-code-conforming and code-conforming supporting structures of elevated tanks using conventional and risk-based decision models

Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes

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