Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Submarine Pipelines Using the Bayesian Approach

Abstract

A fracture mechanics-based fatigue reliability analysis of a submarine pipeline is investigated using the Bayesian approach. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the reliability level of submarine pipelines based on limited experimental data. Bayesian updating method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of a fracture mechanics-based fatigue model regarding different sources of uncertainties. Failure load cycle distribution and the reliability-based performance assessment of API 5L X56 submarine pipelines as a case study are estimated for three different cases. In addition, the impact of different parameters, including the stress ratio, maximum load, uncertainties of stress range and initial crack size, corrosion-enhanced factor, and also the correlation between material parameters on the reliability of the investigated submarine pipeline has been indicated through a sensitivity study. The applied approach in this study may be used for uncertainty modelling and fatigue reliability-based performance assessment of different types of submarine pipelines for maintenance and periodic inspection planning.

Progressive Damage and Crack Propagation Analysis of Composite-Patched Aluminum Plate with 3D Inclined Crack under Fatigue Loading

“…Crack modeling using XFEM S-N curve-based damage mechanics and fracture mechanics are the two main approaches to estimating fatigue life of structural components. S-N curves can be used to predict the fatigue life of non-cracked structures, while fracture mechanics is a more sophisticated approach to fatigue life assessment that takes into account the initial cracks in fatigue life assessment [28].…”

Transient Tests for Checking the Trieste Subsea Pipeline: Toward Field Tests

“…After the laying process, when bending stresses can cause fractures, SPs are subjected to the external hydrostatic pressure, which can crush the pipe, especially if it is not yet under pressure. Successively, the corrosive environment significantly reduces fatigue strength in dry air conditions [4,5]. Moreover, the low temperature of the seabed and the heat of the transported fluid exert opposing stresses on the pipe material: global contraction and local expansion, respectively.…”

Three-Dimensional Ultrasonic Reverse-Time Migration Imaging of Submarine Pipeline Nondestructive Testing in Cylindrical Coordinates

“…When the pipes are subjected to external pressure, failure first occurs in the cross-section with the most severe initial defects [5]. Additionally, once a crack develops, corrosion may promote its propagation, resulting in the cracking of the submarine pipeline [6]. When the pipeline is damaged and leakage occurs, it will not only cause economic losses, but also may bring about safety problems, endangering the safety of both people and the marine environment [7].…”