Fear of the First Strike: The Full Deterrent Effect of California’s Two‐ and Three‐Strikes Legislation

An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

“…Finally, the jail population per capita was negatively associated with the crime rate; this indicated that as the jail population increased, crime decreased, although the coefficient on jail population was not statistically significant. These findings were consistent with past research (e.g., Marvell & Moody, 1996;Shepherd, 2002). The social factors identified by previous research as influencing the crime rate were also generally confirmed by this research.…”

“…Each of these variables was expected to be inversely associated with the property crime rate (i.e., as enforcement activities increase, crime decreases). 6 An inverse relationship was expected because these three factors-law enforcement's effectiveness, law enforcement spending, and people held in custodywere thought to have a deterrent effect on crime (e.g., Marvell & Moody, 1996;Shepherd, 2002).…”

Prison privatization: a perspective on core governmental functions

“…Between 1990 and 2001, national crime and arrest rates both decreased by about 30%, yet between 1970 and 2000, the number of prisoners per 100,000 residents increased by 388%, and the number of prisoners increased by 577% [13]. Apart from the debates on the effectiveness of high incarceration rates on crime control [20,60], the emerging "custodian state" aggravated the instrumental problems of the correctional systems, such as overcrowding, fiscal pressures, and limits on debt financing. The unconstitutional overcrowding also led to court intervention.…”

The effect of three-strikes legislation on serious crime in California

“…In fact, 2001 and 2002 witnessed three of the first and only largescale, sophisticated empirical studies of the effects of three-strikes legislation on crime (Kovandzic, Sloan, & Vieraitis, 2002;Marvell & Moody, 2001;Shepherd, 2002). 1 Prior to that, many researchers studied the impact of three-strikes legislation on prison populations, court backlog, and other criminal justice issues (e.g., Shichor & Sechrest, 1996) and found that, at least in California, the laws have had many detrimental effects.…”

“…Some researchers found that three-strikes deterred crime (e.g., Shepherd, 2002). Others found that three-strikes failed to reduce crime (e.g., Stolzenberg & D'Alessio, 1997), and still others found that the laws actually increased crime, particularly homicide (Kovandzic et al, 2002;Marvell & Moody, 2001).…”