Fear to Vote: Explosions, Salience, and Elections

Abstract

Violence in conflict settings is seldom random, making its effects indistinguishable from the intentions of the perpetrator. We leverage on the quasi-randomness of accidental landmine explosions to study how violence shapes electoral outcomes in Colombia. We combine the geolocation of landmine blasts with the coordinates of voting polls in a regression discontinuity design that compares polls close to which a landmine exploded just before the election to those close to which it did just afterward. Blasts within a month from election day depress turnout by 23%. In addition, those who do vote penalize the democratic left for the explosions and are more likely to support political parties with ties with illegal paramilitary groups.

Health Workforce Reallocation in the Aftermath of Conflict: Evidence from Colombia

“…Before the start of the ceasefire, the incidence and intensity of violence in FARC-affected areas largely limited the mobility of HCWs and patients. Roadblocks, checkpoints, curfews, and antipersonnel mines, caused fear and reduced people's mobility in and out of places controlled by the FARC Vargas et al, 2024). This created obstacles in access and provision of health services.…”

“…Several demand factors may affect the share of HCWs upon conflict termination, many of which are related to the fact that conflict decreases people's mobility and access to markets (see, e.g. Vargas et al, 2024, Melnikov et al, 2020, and Urrego-Mendoza, 2015, and thus conflict termination lifts such restrictions. 3 Indeed, the end of conflict may: i) increase hospital visits for non-violence related diseases; ii) displace the demand for healthcare services away from areas formerly affected by violence and into neighboring municipalities with (objective or perceived) better healthcare providers (Preyra and Pink, 2006); iii) change migration patterns to and from municipalities formerly affected by violence may.…”

How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia

“…Conflicts are socially and economically costly and ground explosives contribute substantially to these costs. Conversely, comprehensive demining campaigns have been shown to entail large economic and social returns (Chiovelli et al, 2019;Prem et al, 2022a;Vargas et al, 2022). Second, it contributes to the literature that points out how successful state-building efforts need to involve different sets of institutions and guarantee enough checks and balances to avoid unintended negative consequences (see Fergusson, 2019 for a recent review).…”