Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era

Abstract

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

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“…Several studies have already been conducted in the context of forecasting electricity demand in different sectors using the LEAP model. Park et al [36] used LEAP to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system of Japan from 2011 to 2030 as an alternative electricity scenario to meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Different authors have used LEAP as a long-term scenario analysis and management tool-although their scope, context, duration, sector and methodology differ-for different countries (e.g., for Taiwan [37], Korea [38], Pakistan [39], Iran [40], Ghana [41] and Lebanon [42]).…”