Feasibility Study for a Solar PV Microgrid in Malawi

Abstract

Energy is an enabler for development but electricity access is still unobtainable for over 1 million people in developing countries. In Malawi, less than 12% of the population have access to grid electricity and in rural areas this is as low as 1%. Solar microgrids are emerging as a cost competitive, low carbon and reliable method for offering energy access in developing countries. This paper provides a summary of the process and key findings in assessing technical and financial feasibility of a solar microgrid in Malawi, including system design definition, business model discussion and sensitivity analysis of key parameters through techno-economic modelling. The novel approach developed utilises qualitative and quantitative information gathering and assessment in an iterative way to design a robust energy access solution in the most viable local location. The results show that the upper limit of the 'expected energy use' can be up to 5 times higher than the designed energy limit. Higher demand grids are shown to present c.20% lower levelised cost of energy for the cases considered and conversely, the 'low demand' grid case is shown to have c.48% higher levelised cost of energy . This represents a significant range of uncertainly in energy use prediction, which if not treated properly will adversely affect both energy access and microgrid business development. The research presented in this paper will address these challenges in the context of Malawi but is broadly applicable to other similar locations.

Assessing the Market for Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Microgrids in Malawi

“…Additionally the process is not dependent on any proprietary tools: HOMERPro is used Load profiles, component costs, and business operational, management and administrative costs used here for inputs to the techno-economic modelling process were adapted from a feasibility study for a solar microgrid in Malawi [49]. This feasibility study utilised methods for system design and business planning, building on industry standards [35,50] Cost curves were then built in HOMERPro for key components based on quotes collected in [49] which allow HOMERPro to optimise the system design based on resource and cost inputs. A summary of the data utilised for this study is shown in Table 5, while the costs associated with generation and storage units are given in Table 6.…”

“…Table 5. Key data for modelling and mapping for each microgrid size [49]. The economy of scale (i.e., lower per-capacity costs for larger systems)…”

“…The microgrid feasibility study [49] calculated the number of paying customers needed for each size of the microgrid modelled, shown in Table 5. The HH density raster was then classified into four regions based on these customer quantity thresholds: below the HH density threshold;…”

“…A service value test found that maize milling was required by the The previous microgrid feasibility study [49] recommended an economy-of-scale tariff structure, based on field surveys, to incentivise increased energy use; the structure means that consumers using the least energy pay the highest band at $2.05 which is still well below the estimated COE for the low-demand microgrids. The higher capacity microgrids however offer a COE broadly in agreement with the aforementioned tariff scheme.…”

Metodología para la definición de escenarios rentables rentables en el desarrollo de micro-redes eléctricas

“…They do not develop and actual analysis in this paper but provide the guidelines of a potentially successful deployment strategy for solar microgrids.Eales et.al. provide in[161] a summary of the process and key findings in assessing technical and financial feasibility of single-user microgrids in Malawi, including PV and battery storage design, business model discussion and sensitivity analysis of key parameters through techno-economic modelling. The author uses HOMER Pro and simulates three potential combination of PV and battery storage going from 2 to 10 kW capacity and from 11.52 to 57.6 kWh respectively.…”