Feasibility Study of Mitigation and Suppression Strategies for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in London and Wuhan

Yang, Po; Qi, Jun; Zhang, Shuhao; Wang, Xulong; Bi, Gaoshan; Yang, Y. Tony; Sheng, Bin

doi:10.1101/2020.04.01.20043794

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Before the invention of vaccines, many community health techniques such as mitigation, suppression, and shield immunity have been suggested and used to control the COVID-19 outbreak [3][4][5]. They have been applied in many countries with different degrees of effectiveness depending on how individuals react to prescribed policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

WITHDRAWN: Control of the COVID-19 System by Vaccination Using a New Control Engineering Technique

Ali

Mhmood

2022

Preprint

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In this work, a novel control engineering method is proposed to achieve a control strategy by vaccination for the COVID-19 epidemic. A proper mathematical model with vaccination control is developed for the COVID-19 system based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model after conducting some analyses and assumptions that reflect the COVID-19 features. Then, the proposed control law is designed using the feedback linearization approach and the H-infinity control framework. In addition, a model reference control is incorporated to ensure that satisfactory time responses are obtained. The Black Hole Optimization (BHO) technique is used to attain the optimality of the proposed control method. Following that, the reported statistics and vaccination plan of the Lombardy region of Italy are utilized to assess the effectiveness of the proposed control law. Ultimately, the simulation results illustrate that the proposed control law can effectively control the COVID-19 system and correctly perform the vaccination plan by tackling the system’s nonlinearity and uncertainty and realizing elegant asymptotic tracking characteristics with reasonable control effort.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

WITHDRAWN: Control of the COVID-19 System by Vaccination Using a New Control Engineering Technique

Ali

Mhmood

2022

Preprint

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“…β1 and β2 respectively correspond to the infection rate of Infectious [I] and Exposed [E] (infected but asymptomatic). Intervention intensity was assumed within the interval [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15], gave with a relatively accurate estimation of COVID-19 breakouts. 24 The value of population density and population mobility in London and the UK were calibrated and different interventions were implemented to estimate the COVID infection situation.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We implemented a modified SEIR model, which called SECMVRD model to account for a dynamic Susceptible [S], Exposed [E] (infected but asymptomatic), Infectious [I] (infected and symptomatic),[V] (vaccinated) , Recovered [R] and Deceased [D] population state. [16][17][18][19] For estimating healthcare needs, the infectious group was categorized into two sub-cases: Mild [M] and Critical [C] (mild cases did not require hospital beds and critical cases need hospital beds but possibly cannot get it due to shortage of health sources). [20][21][22] Meanwhile, the vaccinated population was divided the into two sub-cases: Vaccinated1 [V1] and Vaccinated2 [V1], where V1 is the population who has received the first dose of vaccine, and V2 is the population who has received the second dose of vaccine.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

An Extended COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Vaccination and Multiple Interventions for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in the UK

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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There has been a second outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in the UK in 2019. In this situation, the United Kingdom re-implemented two blockade intervention strategies. Different from the first COVID outbreak, the second outbreak is accompanied by two new situations: 1) the emergence of a new variant strain that originated in September which is more infectious than the original strain, 2) and the official start of a vaccine in the UK started in mid-December. As the date for lifting the third blockade approaches, what kind of intervention measures will the UK continue to take: curb the spread of the COVID epidemic, reduce medical needs, and allow people to return to normal life and revitalize the national economy as quickly as possible. Targeting at this problem, this article conducted a feasibility study by defining the mathematical model SEMCVRD, and expanded the traditional SEIR (susceptible exposure to infectious disease recovery) model by adding two key features: the mixed infection of the mutant strain and the original strain, and the addition of Crowd of vaccinators. The model uses a public data set for fitting and evaluation. The data set contains daily new infections, new deaths, and daily vaccination in the UK from February 2020 to February 2021. Based on the simulation results, we have the following findings: 1) We simulated the mixed infection of the new mutant virus and the original virus in the UK, and found that under the hypothesis that the vaccine is effective against the new virus, we continue to promote the injection of vaccines within the society, which can effectively curb the spread and infection of new mutant viruses. We predicted that if UK could continuously implement insensitive suppression, COVID-19 epidemic would be able to control by 9th April 2021 and would be nearly ended by 1st May 2020. 2) With the increasing number of people vaccinated and immunized against the virus, the unblocking of the third blockade in the UK is coming. Using a phased and progressive unblocking intervention strategy with an intensity of 3 is our best choice at present. Under this strategy, the total number of infections in the UK will be limited to 4.2 million; and the total number of deaths in the UK is 135,000. People can return to normal life and social distancing after four months. The epidemic will nearly end in 6th June (The sign of the end: the number of new infections per day is less than 1,000, and the number of new deaths per day is less than 35). In addition, according to our prediction, under this kind of intervention, the UK will not experience a shortage of medical resources as it did in the first half of 2020. 3) In the case that it is possible to provide people with 600 thousand vaccinations(double the quantity now provided) every day, we can try a higher intensity (intensity 5) Phase intervention strategy to nearly end the epidemic earlier (25th May) and restore people's normal life and social distance.

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“…A series of mathematical COVID-19 simulations have recently appeared. [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Most of them are based on deterministic continuoustime epidemiological models, which consider age-independent epidemiological classes of, for example, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and recovered (R) individuals, [11][12][13][14][15][16] whose numbers S(t), E(t), I(t), R(t) evolve in time (t) according to a system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations. Open access sources already available [17][18][19] enable one to easily perform various numerical simulations by means of such models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Bâldea

2020

Advcd Theory and Sims

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The COVID-19 pandemic in a population modelled as a network wherein infection can propagate both via intra-and inter-group interactions is simulated. The results emphasize the importance of diminishing the inter-group infections in the effort of substantial flattening/delaying of the epi(demiologic) curve with concomitant mitigation of disastrous economy and social consequences. To exemplify, splitting a population into m (say, 5 or 10) noninteracting groups while keeping intra-group interaction unchanged yields a stretched epidemiological curve having the maximum number of daily infections reduced and postponed in time by the same factor m (5 or 10). More generally, the study suggests a practical approach to fight against SARS-CoV-2 virus spread based on population splitting into groups and minimizing intermingling between them. This strategy can be pursued by large-scale infrastructure reorganization of activity at different levels in big logistic units (e.g., large productive networks, factories, enterprises, warehouses, schools, (seasonal) harvest work). Importantly, unlike total lockdown, the proposed approach prevents economic ruin and keeps social life at a more bearable level than distancing everyone from anyone. The declaration for the first time in Europe that COVID-19 epidemic ended in the two-million population Slovenia may be taken as support for the strategy proposed here.

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Feasibility Study of Mitigation and Suppression Strategies for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in London and Wuhan

Cited by 10 publications

References 16 publications

WITHDRAWN: Control of the COVID-19 System by Vaccination Using a New Control Engineering Technique

WITHDRAWN: Control of the COVID-19 System by Vaccination Using a New Control Engineering Technique

An Extended COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Vaccination and Multiple Interventions for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in the UK

Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

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