Featured risk evaluation of nautical navigational environment using a risk cloud model

Tian, Yan; Chen, Lijia; Huang, Liwen; Mou, Junmin

doi:10.1080/20464177.2018.1534929

Cited by 17 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…A previous study [65] used a simplified method to obtain the cloud model parameters. To convert the fuzzy evaluations of the experts into cloud models, the parameters of the benchmark cloud (entropy and hyperentropy) were directly assigned to individual clouds.…”

Section: Evaluation Using Rcm Based On a Simplified Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Cloud Model for Evaluating Nautical Navigational Environments

Chen

Tian

2021

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Uncertainty makes the risk evaluation of complex water transportation systems (WTSs) a difficult task. To achieve reasonable results while accounting for uncertainty, the risk evaluation of nautical navigational environments (NNEts) is often based on classical cloud model theory. This study proposes the concept of a risk cloud model (RCM) for NNEt evaluation and uses a fuzzy statistics-based computational approach to obtain the RCM parameters. As a case study, the proposed RCM method was applied to the risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait. The performance of the proposed method was compared to those of a fuzzy theory-based method and an earlier proposed simplified algorithm. The results of the case study demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method along with several key advantages. First, the method could deal with uncertainty, take advantage of multichannel information, and evaluate risk features. Second, the RCM droplets intuitively displayed the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of risk levels, which facilitated understanding and analysis. Third, it showed a good sensitivity to ensure the refinement of evaluation results. The proposed method offered an improved approach to NNEt risk evaluation under uncertain conditions.

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Section: Evaluation Using Rcm Based On a Simplified Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Cloud Model for Evaluating Nautical Navigational Environments

Chen

Tian

2021

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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“…For the evaluation method, the research in the field related to maritime safety in literature [5] combines fuzzy theory and neural network, and dares to obtain good results; In reference [6], aiming at the problem of marine navigation risk, Bayesian network is used to study the probability reasoning model between various variables by means of quantitative analysis Reference [7] proposed a probabilistic framework for assessing ship risk based on hybrid method and multiple data sources. The Bayesian network learning method uses the data from the new inspection system of the Paris Memorandum of understanding on port state control to characterize the relationship between risk parameters and conduct dynamic and static evaluation Analytic hierarchy process is widely used in the field of navigation risk evaluation, but it has the disadvantage of strong subjectivity [8]; In order to weaken the influence of subjective factors, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy AHP) model is proposed to obtain the weight of evaluation factors by using the experience of multiple groups of experts, which is actually applied to the study of marine navigation risk evaluation [9][10] The risk cloud model (RCM) of the cloud model theory proposed in document [11] can use multi-channel information to evaluate the risk in the navigation environment, adapt to uncertainty and provide fullfunctional analysis of the navigation environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Navigation Risk Evaluation in Port Waters based on Improvement Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

2022

Proceedings of WCSE 2022 Spring Event: 2022 9th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Applications

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Ship navigation safety is affected by various factors. A ship navigation risk evaluation method based on Rosen gradient projection method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is proposed in this paper. A three-layer navigation factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established. Rosen gradient projection method is used to calculate the weight of the model. This method can greatly weaken the influence of human subjective factors, maintain a certain calculation accuracy, and make the evaluation objective and accurate. Finally, experiments verify the feasibility of this method.

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“…The fact that accidents could not be prevented at the targeted level on a global scale makes the effectiveness of the measures taken against accidents somewhat questionable (Chauvin et al, 2013;Schröder-Hinrichs et al, 2012;Uğurlu et al, 2020). In narrow waterways, traffic separation lines, pilotage services, and vessel traffic services are essential applications that ensure navigational safety (Praetorius and Hollnagel, 2014;Tian et al, 2020;van Westrenen and Praetorius, 2014). On the other hand, local traffic, strong currents, sharp turns, intense environmental lights, marine topography, the inadequacy of anchorage areas, and transit ship traffic are the main factors that threaten the safety of navigation on narrow waterways (Köse et al, 2003;Başar, 2010;Ugurlu et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%