Features of Forecasting Retail Turnover in Conditions of Instability and Global Fluctuations

Abstract

Real practice and challenges that are formed in the process of modern social transformations under the influence of instability encourage to conduct an active search for a theoretical and methodological platform, based on which retail can achieve in the practice of strategic management retail turnover of adequacy to challenges of stress factors. The article is aimed at carrying out a statistical test of the assumption about the random walk of the retail turnover volume of retail in Ukraine. Economic and statistical methods of analysis and forecasting, methods of logical generalization and mathematical abstraction were used to perform the scientific research. Results of a statistical test of the assumption about the random walk of the turnover volume of retail enterprises in Ukraine confirmed the hypothesis that the aggregate activity of retail enterprises in Ukraine is a random process that does not have regularities (trends). It is substantiated that in the conditions of an unstable external environment, the forecasting of retail turnover should be based on a powerful analysis of the formation of consumer demand for individual goods factors, based on the study of the patterns of change and forecasting of factor indicators, as well as be carried out according to the composition and structure of the turnover with a further summary of its total volume. The confirmation of the hypothesis about the random walk of the turnover volume of retail enterprises in conditions of instability and global fluctuations, which was the basis of the conducted research, made it possible to deny the traditional approach to forecasting, namely the deterministic forecast. For practical application, an approach to forecasting the turnover based on the assessment of the limits (minimum and maximum possible value) with a given reliability for the current perspective is proposed, which ensures the relevance of predictive calculations.