Features of SAS Enterprise Guide for probabilistic Modeling System, Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

This paper addresses to the problem of using SAS Enterprise Guide 6.1 as a means for building probabilistic models and as optimum method of modeling gross domestic product in terms of the economic crisis and social threats is proposed. Today in a complex socio-political and economic situation growing influence of external factors, presence of uncertainties and risks there exists a problem of anticipating potential threats in the humanitarian and social spheres and ways to overcome them aiming to provide food security and controllability of ecological situation. All these problems, as reported in the NATO program "Science for Peace and Security", are of high priority for the countries that need to take into account threats to security, including Ukraine. That is why in the framework of the project NUKR. SFPP G4877 "Modeling and Mitigation of Social Disasters Caused by Catastrophes and Terrorism" the problems of scientific prediction of national economy for the period to 2030 as one of the measures preventing growth of social tension in the country are disclosed.