Features of Seasonal Cardiovascular Mortality in Winter in Russian Regions With Different Climatic and Geographical Characteristics

Boytsov, S. А.; Lukyanov, М. М.; Kontsevaya, A. V.; Деев, А. Д.; Balanova, Yu. A.; Капустина, А. В.; Klyashtorny, V. G.; Hudyakov, M. B.

doi:10.20996/1819-6446-2013-9-6-627-632

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…In addition to our study, there are several academic papers that have analyzed the relationship between cardiovascular diseases, weather, and the frequency of ambulance calls using time series data analysis methods [50][51][52]. Furthermore, our results are consistent with other studies that have examined the impact of meteorological indicators on the occurrence of main symptoms in patients with arterial hypertension undergoing spa treatment in the Crimean Peninsula [53][54][55]. These studies have calculated the most favorable season and duration of the treatment season with a minimal HC.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Meteorological Parameters and Hypertensive Crisis Risk: a Longitudinal Study for Prediction Model Developing

Fesyun,

Yurova,

Grishechkina

et al. 2023

Bulletin of Rehabilitation Medicine

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INTRODUCTION. Integrating climatotherapy into health resort therapy for arterial hypertension in diverse landscapes has the potential to yield positive effects, if used in target groups and preventing the occurrence of meteopathic reactions, including a hypertensive crisis (HC). While the impact of natural healing factors on the human body has been previously studied, the utilization of modern mathematical approaches in developing HC models has enabled accurate predictions and timely prevention of HC during adverse weather periods. AIM. To analyze publicly available meteorological data time series to construct a mathematical model for predicting high-risk situations of HC based on the influence of climatic factors on patients with arterial hypertension. This model would identify unfavorable periods for hypertensive patients staying in health resorts throughout the year, allowing for timely therapeutic and preventive measures to prevent HC during these periods. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The study was conducted over a 22-month period, from January 1, 2019 to October 31, 2020, in Gelendzhik and Novorossiysk, renowned resort destinations located on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus. These regions have a dry and subtropical climate. Meteorological data were obtained from Gelendzhik and Novorossiysk weather stations, and ambulance calls data were collected from Gelendzhik (12,268 calls) and Novorossiysk (12,226 calls), resulting in a total of 24,494 ambulance calls. The model was calculated using the maximum likelihood method through nonlinear logit regression. Key factors for the model included the main indicators of climate1 and geomagnetic conditions2. The logistic regression method exhibited a sensitivity of 56.0 % and a specificity of 77.3 %, with an overall accuracy of 76.0 %. RESULTS. According to the developed predictive model, the winter season has no more than 75.0 % of days associated with a low risk of hypertension, decreasing to 59.0 % in spring. However, the proportion increases to 89.0 % in summer and reaches 77.0 % in autumn. Model adequacy checks indicated a high degree of relevance, with Q (model quality) ranging between +0.64 and –0.117, and p 0.3. CONCLUSION. The developed logistic regression models provide more accurate calculations of individual risks for developing complications of hypertension and offer the opportunity to formulate individual strategies for patients. These models contribute to the field of climatotherapy and enhance the understanding of the impact of climatic factors on hypertensive patients, facilitating targeted interventions and improved management of hypertensive crises.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Meteorological Parameters and Hypertensive Crisis Risk: a Longitudinal Study for Prediction Model Developing

Fesyun,

Yurova,

Grishechkina

et al. 2023

Bulletin of Rehabilitation Medicine

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“…Mohammad МА, et al в крупном общенациональном исследовании Швеции показали, что низкая среднесуточная t воздуха связана с риском развития ОИМ [10]. К аналогичным выводам приходили ученые с разных точек земного шара вне зависимости от климатического региона исследуемой популяции [11,12]. Наряду с этим, при поиске связи высокой t воздуха с частотой развития ОИМ в литературе имеются противоречивые данные.…”

Section: Key Messages What Is Already Known About the Subject?unclassified

“…Проведенный анализ вы явил отсутствие статистически значимой Рис. 5 [11][12][13][14][15] Перепад t за 24 ч 0-5 о C 13 [10,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] <0,001 >6 о C 11 [9][10][11][12][13][14] Примечание: Ме -медиана, Q25-Q75 -интерквартильный размах. Результат множественного регрессионного анализа продемонстрировал, что только ночная t воздуха является значимой для частоты гос питали заций пациентов с обострениями ССЗ.…”

Section: построение прогностической модели с помощью однофакторной и ...unclassified

Meteoropathy: myth or reality? Assessment of the relationship between cardiovascular diseases and weather conditions according to data from a Moscow hospital

Drapkina,

Zyryanov,

Shepel

et al. 2024

Cardiovasc Ther Prev

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Many patients and some doctors associate the worsening of cardiovascular diseases with meteoropathy (changes in atmospheric pressure and air temperature). Opinion about lack of weather influence on the increase in overall morbidity and the lack of related research data indicate the need to study the relationship between cardiovascular diseases and meteorological conditions.Aim. To assess the prevalence of hospitalizations with symptomatic increases in blood pressure (BP), atrial fibrillation (AF), and decompensated heart failure (HF) in a Moscow hospital depending on meteorological conditions.Material and methods. This retrospective analysis of the number of emergency hospitalizations of patients with symptomatic increases in blood pressure, AF, and decompensated HF in Moscow City Clinical Hospital № 24 was carried out in the period from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019. Information from the website www.weather.com was used as a source of meteorological data. The following indicators were assessed daily: daytime air temperature (t), nighttime air temperature, maximum diurnal air temperature variation, atmospheric pressure, maximum diurnal atmospheric pressure variation, amount of precipitation. To assess statistical significance, the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used. A correlation analysis was carried out, and a prognostic model was created using multiple linear regression.Results. During the period from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019, 4354 patients were hospitalized at City Clinical Hospital № 24 with symptomatic BP increase and/or AF and/or decompensated HF. The highest number of hospitalizations occurred in November, December and January. The median number of admissions per day was 12 patients. When comparing the mean number of patients admitted to the hospital per day, depending on day- and nighttime air temperature, following statistically significant differences were obtained (p<0,001): with day- and nighttime air temperature ≥0о C, the number of admissions was less compared to sub-zero temperatures. Significant inverse correlations were established between the number of patients hospitalized with symptomatic BP increase, AF and HF per day, with air temperature at night (correlation coefficient r=-0,339; p<0,001), air t during the day (r=-0,316; p<0,001), temperature difference over 48 hours (r=-0,205; p<0,001); direct correlations with atmospheric pressure (r=0,106; p=0,044) and its changes (r=0,115; p=0,028) were identified. All identified relationships were of moderate strength. According to prognostic model, only nighttime air temperature turned out to be a significant indicator associated with the hospitalization rate per day. With a decrease in air temperature at night for every 7,5о C <0, one more patient is expected to be hospitalized with a symptomatic BP increase, decompensated HF, or paroxysmal AF.Conclusion. Negative air temperature in a metropolis is associated with an increase in hospitalizations for symptomatic BP increase, AF or decompensated HF. Atmospheric pressure and precipitation do not affect these conditions.

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“…В научной литературе существуют много работ, в которых исследуется сезонная динамика ССС в разных регионах земного шара с использованием данных по госпитализации как в отдельные медицинские учреждения, так и национальных регистров [1][2][3]. Также нами были найдены публикации [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19], исследующие этот вопрос в регионах и медицинских учреждениях Российской Федерации (РФ), но без охвата всей территории РФ.…”

Section: ключевые моменты Key Messagesunclassified

Seasonal dynamics of cardiovascular events in the Russian Federation

Kuzmenko,

Galagudza,

Fedorenko

et al. 2024

Russ J Cardiol

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Aim. To study the seasonal dynamics of cardiovascular events (CVE) in the Russian Federation (RF) using medical and statistical data for the period 2016-2019, and also to establish an association of CVE risk with meteorological conditions.Material and methods. We used data on hospitalizations for 2016-2019 for hemorrhagic stroke (HS), ischemic stroke (IS), myocardial infarction (MI), and acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Results. Data analysis showed that the maximum number of HSs occurred in winter and spring, and the minimum in summer. The maximum number of ISs was recorded in spring and summer, while the minimum in winter and autumn. ACS occurred more often in winter and spring, MI — more often in spring. ACS was accompanied by MI in 44% of cases. In winter, the probability of HS increased with decreasing latitude.In summer, the risk of HS and IS was greater at lower air temperatures. In summer, the probability of IS and MI was associated with lower values of atmospheric pressure and partial density of oxygen (ρO2). In winter, the risk of IS increased at highr atmospheric pressure values. No convincing evidence was obtained of the influence of geomagnetic activity on the seasonal dynamics of the CVEs either throughout the Russian Federation or in the circumpolar regions.Conclusion. As a result, meteorological conditions influence the seasonal risk of CVEs. A decrease in ρO2 in summer significantly increases the CVE risk associated with ischemia, which should be taken into account when preventing CVEs.

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Features of Seasonal Cardiovascular Mortality in Winter in Russian Regions With Different Climatic and Geographical Characteristics

Cited by 9 publications

References 9 publications

Meteorological Parameters and Hypertensive Crisis Risk: a Longitudinal Study for Prediction Model Developing

Meteorological Parameters and Hypertensive Crisis Risk: a Longitudinal Study for Prediction Model Developing

Meteoropathy: myth or reality? Assessment of the relationship between cardiovascular diseases and weather conditions according to data from a Moscow hospital

Seasonal dynamics of cardiovascular events in the Russian Federation

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