Federal Revenue Forecasting

Penner, Rudolph G.

doi:10.1201/9781420045833.ch2

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…As was noted by Penner (2008), the economic forecasts that underlie the budget forecasts are based on traditional large-scale macroeconomic models. Despite the wellknown shortcomings of these models (the Lucas critique), they are well suited for the incorporation of an analysis that Penner says ''is almost always leavened by a large dose of judgment''.…”

Section: The Forecasting Process As Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”

Gamber

Liebner

2017

International Journal of Forecasting

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Section: The Forecasting Process As Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”

Gamber

Liebner

2017

International Journal of Forecasting

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“…The challenges in conducting lifecourse research are considerable, but the challenges in applying the life-course perspective to policy and practice are even greater. One major obstacle is that when the costs and benefits of proposed policies are being weighed, the time frame for outcome measurement is very short (typically 3 to 5 years) for the Office of Management and Budget, 118 which assesses proposed federal legislation. Politicians typically want credit for the initiatives they enact, but a life-course perspective tells us that it can often take 1 or more generations to realize the full benefits of investments in early childhood.…”

Section: Challenges In Applying the Life-course Perspective To Researmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Disparities Beginning in Childhood: A Life-Course Perspective

2009

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In this article we argue for the utility of the life-course perspective as a tool for understanding and addressing health disparities across socioeconomic and racial or ethnic groups, particularly disparities that originate in childhood. Key concepts and terms used in life-course research are briefly defined; as resources, examples of existing literature and the outcomes covered are provided along with examples of longitudinal databases that have often been used for life-course research. The life-course perspective focuses on understanding how early-life experiences can shape health across an entire lifetime and potentially across generations; it systematically directs attention to the role of context, including social and physical context along with biological factors, over time. This approach is particularly relevant to understanding and addressing health disparities, because social and physical contextual factors underlie socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in health. A major focus of life-course epidemiology has been to understand how early-life experiences (particularly experiences related to economic adversity and the social disadvantages that often accompany it) shape adult health, particularly adult chronic disease and its risk factors and consequences. The strong life-course influences on adult health could provide a powerful rationale for policies at all levels--federal, state, and local--to give more priority to investment in improving the living conditions of children as a strategy for improving health and reducing health disparities across the entire life course.

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“…3. We also benefit from earlier research aimed at increasing accuracy in revenue forecasts (Auerbach 1999;Penner 2008), demonstrating that national governments can save surpluses for future use (Posner and Gordon 2001), and improving management of and budgeting for losses from natural disasters (Cummins, Suher and Zanjani 2010;Phaup and Kirschner 2010 confidence level. They also confirm that the largest budget deficit errors in the last several decades have resulted from downturns in economic activity.…”

Section: Measuring Federal Budget Uncertainty and Biasmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…We also benefit from earlier research aimed at increasing accuracy in revenue forecasts (Auerbach ; Penner ), demonstrating that national governments can save surpluses for future use (Posner and Gordon ), and improving management of and budgeting for losses from natural disasters (Cummins, Suher and Zanjani ; Phaup and Kirschner ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

Budgeting for Fiscal Uncertainty and Bias: A Federal Process Proposal

Bhatti¹,

Phaup²

2015

Public Budgeting & Finance

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Balanced budget constraints have forced sub‐national governments to anticipate and mitigate the adverse effects of fiscal shocks on budget balance, services, and tax rates. By contrast, the federal government responds to negative budget surprises with increased borrowing. That response is consistent with short‐term economic stabilization, national security, and assisting those suffering loss. Nonetheless, an automatic default‐to‐debt response requires a routine means of restoring debt to planned levels. Otherwise, increases in public debt imply unplanned increases in future tax rates, reduced fiscal flexibility, lower income, and allocative inefficiency. We propose a procedural offset to debt drift from shocks and planning bias.

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Federal Revenue Forecasting

Cited by 10 publications

References 2 publications

Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”

Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”

Health Disparities Beginning in Childhood: A Life-Course Perspective

Budgeting for Fiscal Uncertainty and Bias: A Federal Process Proposal

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