Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon

Staal, Arie; Flores, Bernardo M.; Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Bosmans, Joyce; Fetzer, Ingo; Tuinenburg, Obbe A.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e

Cited by 145 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Changes in hydrological dynamics in Amazonia due to deforestation have been the focus of many studies (e.g., Cavalcante, Pontes, Souza-Filho, & de Souza, 2019;Chambers & Artaxo, 2017;D'Almeida et al, 2007;Staal et al, 2020). About one-third of the moisture that forms precipitation over the Amazonia is locally supplied through recycling of evapotranspiration (Davidson et al, 2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Jia

Zhang

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Frequent Amazonian fires over the last decade have raised the alarm about the fate of the Earth's most biodiverse forest. The increased fire frequency has been attributed to altered hydrological cycles. However, observations over the past few decades have demonstrated hydrological changes that may have opposing impacts on fire, including higher basin‐wide precipitation and increased drought frequency and severity. Here, we use multiple satellite observations and climate reanalysis datasets to demonstrate compelling evidence of increased fire susceptibility in response to climate regime shifts across Amazonia. We show that accumulated forest loss since 2000 warmed and dried the lower atmosphere, which reduced moisture recycling and resulted in increased drought extent and severity, and subsequent fire. Extremely dry and wet events accompanied with hot days have been more frequent in Amazonia due to climate shift and forest loss. Simultaneously, intensified water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic increased high‐altitude atmospheric humidity and heavy rainfall events, but those events did not alleviate severe and long‐lasting droughts. Amazonia fire risk is most significant in the southeastern region where tropical savannas undergo long seasonally dry periods. We also find that fires have been expanding through the wet–dry transition season and northward to savanna–forest transition and tropical seasonal forest regions in response to increased forest loss at the “Arc of Deforestation.” Tropical forests, which have adapted to historically moist conditions, are less resilient and easily tip into an alternative state. Our results imply forest conservation and fire protection options to reduce the stress from positive feedback between forest loss, climate change, and fire.

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confidence: 99%

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Jia

Zhang

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…Although we do a number of sensitivity analyses regarding important assumptions related to atmospheric moisture tracking, we used only one moisture-tracking model. It should be noted that more atmospheric tracer models such as HYSPLIT (Stein et al, 2015) and moisture recycling models (Stohl et al, 2005;Döös et al, 2017;Keune and Miralles, 2019) exist that could be used with ERA5 forcing. Comparison with the tracer models would require keeping track of the atmospheric moisture balance during tracking.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties

Tuinenburg

Staal

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Many processes in hydrology and Earth system science relate to continental moisture recycling, the contribution of terrestrial evaporation to precipitation. For example, the effects of land-cover changes on regional rainfall regimes depend on this process. To study moisture recycling, a range of moisture-tracking models are in use that are forced with output from atmospheric models but differ in various ways. They can be Eulerian (grid-based) or Lagrangian (trajectory-based), have two or three spatial dimensions, and rely on a range of other assumptions. Which model is most suitable depends not only on the purpose of the study but also on the quality and resolution of the data with which it is forced. Recently, the high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data set has become the state of the art, paving the way for a new generation of moisture-tracking models. However, it is unclear how the new data can best be used to obtain accurate estimates of atmospheric moisture flows. Here we develop a set of moisture-tracking models forced with ERA5 data and systematically test their performance regarding continental evaporation recycling ratio, distances of moisture flows, and “footprints” of evaporation from seven point sources across the globe. We report simulation times to assess possible trade-offs between accuracy and speed. Three-dimensional Lagrangian models were most accurate and ran faster than Eulerian versions for tracking water from single grid cells. The rate of vertical mixing of moisture in the atmosphere was the greatest source of uncertainty in moisture tracking. We conclude that the recently improved resolution of atmospheric reanalysis data allows for more accurate moisture tracking results in a Lagrangian setting, but that considerable uncertainty regarding turbulent mixing remains. We present an efficient Lagrangian method to track atmospheric moisture flows from any location globally using ERA5 reanalysis data and make the code for this model, which we call UTrack-atmospheric-moisture, publicly available.

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“…Deforestation in the 21st century has predominantly occurred in the southeastern part of the Amazon, making dry seasons drier and more frequent (Staal et al, 2020); with current deforestation rates, we will face rainfall decreasing up to 20% with consequences in resilience and regrowth (Zemp et al, 2017). Studies in the region are crucial to improve the knowledge about impacts on the biota experiencing fast change on vegetation covering and land use.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review of the polychromatic ground snakesAtractus snethlageaecomplex reveals four new species from threatened environments

Melo-Sampaio

Passos

Prudente

et al. 2021

J. Zool. Syst. Evol. Res.

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We review the Atractus snethlageae species complex based on the examination of 330 specimens throughout its entire distribution, including its type series. We redefine A. snethlageae and recognize four new species previously assigned to it in the literature and natural history collections. Two of them are diagnosed through both phenotypic (meristic, morphometric, color pattern, and male genital structure) and molecular (phylogeny) evidence, while the other two are recognized on the basis of morphological characters only. We show that some Amazonian lowland species have more restricted ranges. The area covering the eastern portion of the state of Pará and western portion of the state of Maranhão in Brazil harbors restricted endemism for Atractus. This biogeographically important region is also the most threatened within Amazonia. Finally, we discuss the expected changes in the taxonomy of ground snakes with more robust hypotheses based on well‐sampled phylogenies.

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Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon

Cited by 145 publications

References 64 publications

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Climate regime shift and forest loss amplify fire in Amazonian forests

Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties

Systematic review of the polychromatic ground snakesAtractus snethlageaecomplex reveals four new species from threatened environments

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