Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Flores, Bernardo M.; Staal, Arie

doi:10.1111/gcb.16293

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 341 publications

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“…Positive (reinforcing) feedbacks are ubiquitous in tropical forests [41] and can cause tipping points [42], which present a possible threat to the Amazon [6,43,44]. An example of such a positive feedback exists between fire and tree cover loss, which could trap a landscape in a state of low tree cover maintained by fire [45][46][47].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region

Staal

Koren

Tejada

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The southeastern Amazon has recently been shown to be a net carbon source, which is partly caused by drying conditions. Drying depends on a number of factors, one of which is the land cover at the locations where the moisture has originated as evaporation. Here we assess for the first time the origins of the moisture that precipitates in the Amazon carbon source region, using output from a Lagrangian atmospheric moisture tracking model. We relate vegetation productivity in the Amazon carbon source region to precipitation patterns and derive land-cover data at the moisture origins of these areas, allowing us to estimate how the carbon cycle and hydrological cycle are linked in this critical part of the Amazon. We find that, annually, 13% of the precipitation in the Amazon carbon source region has evaporated from that same area, which is half of its land-derived moisture. We further find a moisture-recycling-mediated increase in gross primary productivity of roughly 41 Mg carbon km−2 yr−1 within the Amazon carbon source region if it is fully forested compared to any other land cover. Our results indicate that the parts of the Amazon forest that are already a net carbon source, still help sustain their own biomass production. Although the most degraded parts of the Amazon depend mostly on oceanic input of moisture, further degradation of this region would amplify carbon losses to the atmosphere.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region

Staal

Koren

Tejada

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…When stressing conditions intensify, some ecosystems may change their equilibrium state gradually, whereas others may shift abruptly between alternative stable states 10 . A ‘tipping point’ is the critical threshold value of an environmental stressing condition at which a small disturbance may cause an abrupt shift in the ecosystem state 2 , 3 , 13 , 14 , accelerated by positive feedbacks 15 (see Extended Data Table 1 ). This type of behaviour in which the system gets into a phase of self-reinforcing (runaway) change is often referred to as ‘critical transition’ 16 .…”

Section: Theory and Conceptsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Flores,

Montoya,

Sakschewski

et al. 2024

Nature

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The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1–3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

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“…When forests are disturbed, changes in ecological and social processes may disrupt interactions and feedbacks that maintained the system resilient, such as the ancient ecological knowledge of local peoples that maintain forests rich in food resources [33]. These changes may trigger other types of positive feedbacks [34], potentially arresting the ecosystem in a degraded state [35]. Positive feedbacks are interactions in which the corresponding outcomes reinforce previous changes [34,36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes may trigger other types of positive feedbacks [34], potentially arresting the ecosystem in a degraded state [35]. Positive feedbacks are interactions in which the corresponding outcomes reinforce previous changes [34,36]. For instance, forest cover loss due to hurricane windthrow leaves the ecosystem vulnerable to topsoil erosion which further intensifies forest degradation and reduces forest resilience [37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, forest cover loss due to hurricane windthrow leaves the ecosystem vulnerable to topsoil erosion which further intensifies forest degradation and reduces forest resilience [37]. Feedbacks play an essential role in ecosystem dynamics as they are able to weaken ecosystem resilience and consequently push them to alternative stable states [8,34,36,38]. Resilience is the capacity of socialecological system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing changes so as to still retain essentially similar function, structure and feedbacks, thus assuring the continuous provision of desired sets of ecosystem services to human societies [39,40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recovery of Tropical Forests in Southern Haiti Reflects Shift in Local Governance

Sylvéus,

Cunha,

Flores

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Anthropogenic disturbances interacting with natural disturbances, ecological and socio-economic factors can provoke forest degradation and modulate ecosystem resilience. In Haiti, protected areas recently created to reduce forest loss, require studies about forest dynamics and land use to assure the development of sustainable management policies. We combine field interview with Landsat satellite images of the Macaya National Park collected between 1985 and 2021 to investigate: 1) how much of the original forest area has been converted into agricultural or logged area since 1985; and 2) how do elevation and slope influence the expansion of human-induced land-use changes. Our results indicate an increase of 11.36% in forest cover and a reduction of 75.34% in agriculture class cover, despite the passage of seven hurricanes in the region. Forest recovery was apparently unrelated to elevation and slope, and likely reflected the implementation of new environmental laws and policies with the creation of the Macaya National Park in 1983. Restoration and protection programs contributed to ensure access to financial resources, technical assistance and new technology, thus promoting a shift into a more resilient forest system. This study brings hope for forest conservation in Haiti by showing that positive results can be achieved through inclusive collaboration.

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Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Cited by 22 publications

References 341 publications

Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region

Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Recovery of Tropical Forests in Southern Haiti Reflects Shift in Local Governance

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