The stock of North Sea autumn spawning herring Clupea harengus (L.) has shown an unprecedented 10 yr sequence of sharply reduced recruitment, in spite of a high spawning biomass. Recent work has identified this below-expected recruitment as being determined during the larval phase: however, the underlying mechanism remains elusive. In this study we analysed archived larval samples captured before and after the onset of the reduced survival to test the hypothesis of a concurrent change in the larval growth rate. Individual larval growth rates, averaged over the 21 d prior to capture, were estimated for ~200 larvae from 4 different years using a model-based analysis of otolith ring widths. Hydrographic backtracking models complemented the otolith analysis by reconstructing the environmental history and spawning origin of each larva. A significant reduction in net larval growth rate of 8%, concurrent with the reduced larval survival and recruitment, was identified: after correcting for the effect of other explanatory variables (e.g. temperature changes), the gross reduction was found to be 12%. This reduction is most probably due to changes in either the amount or quality of available food. The study demonstrates the potential of coupling 2 different techniques for affording new insights into fish early life history: otolith microstructure analysis and hydrographic modelling. Finally, the study provides a novel indication of the association between reduced growth and larvae survival, thereby narrowing the range of potential mechanisms underlying the observed reduction in the recruitment of North Sea autumn spawning herring.
KEY WORDS: North Sea herring · Otolith microstructure · Hydrographic backtracking · Larval growth · Larval mortality · RecruitmentResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Mar Ecol Prog Ser 489: 197-211, 2013 2009) (Fig. 1). Such a reduction has occurred previously, albeit over a much shorter period e.g. the 1988 to 1990 year classes (Nash & Dickey-Collas 2005). The increased larval mortality has also been traced further back into the early life-history through analysis of field-based observations, and may occur closer to spawning than to metamorphosis (Fässler et al. 2011).However, in spite of the insight into the dynamics of this stock and its long history of scientific investigations (Cushing & Bridger 1966, Sinclair 2009, Dickey-Collas et al. 2010) a mechanistic understanding of the recruitment process remains elusive. Many hypotheses have been proposed; however, there is no clear consensus. Temperature increases in the North Sea have been widely reported and shown to be associated with increased larval mortality (Payne et al. 2009, Fässler et al. 2011). Bioenergetics models have suggested that the time around yolk-sack absorption and first feeding may represent a critical juncture for survival, again possibly related to temperature (Hufnagl & Peck 2011). Changes in the zooplankton community in the North Sea are also known to have occurred (E...