Abstract.-Largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides and smallmouth bass M. dolomieu have been introduced into freshwater habitats in Japan, with potentially serious consequences for native fish populations. In this paper we apply the technique of ecological niche modeling using the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP) to predict the potential distributions of these two species in Japan. This algorithm constructs a niche model based on point occurrence records and ecological coverages. The model can be visualized in geographic space, yielding a prediction of potential geographic range. The model can then be tested by determining how well independent point occurrence data are predicted according to the criteria of sensitivity and specificity provided by receiver-operator curve analysis. We ground-truthed GARP's ability to forecast the geographic occurrence of each species in its native range. The predictions were statistically significant for both species (P Ͻ 0.001). We projected the niche models onto the Japanese landscape to visualize the potential geographic ranges of both species in Japan. We tested these predictions using known occurrences from introduced populations of largemouth bass, both in the aggregate and by habitat type. All analyses robustly predicted known Japanese occurrences (P Ͻ 0.001). The number of smallmouth bass in Japan was too small for statistical tests, but the 10 known occurrences were predicted by the majority of models.Assessing the threat of species invasions and the possible spread of such species is a global challenge that requires a global perspective (Carlton * Corresponding author: ewiley@ku.edu.1 Order of authorship is alphabetical, reflecting the collaborative nature of this paper.2 Present address: Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA.3 Present address: Department of Life Science, Faculty of Bioresources, Mie University, 1515 Kamihama, Tsu, Mie 514-8507, Japan. Received October 9, 2003; accepted December 3, 2003 1996; Enserink 1999). To achieve this perspective, we can apply analytical tools and use information on ecological landscapes that can be gathered on a global scale as well as specimen records to seek the sets of factors that are useful in forecasting places where the establishment of species is possible. The point is not necessarily to learn more about the ecology of the species-this would require detailed study of local landscapes. Rather, the aim is to build models of the ecological niche requirements of a particular species within its native range with respect to factors that are available globally, to test whether these models can predict