Feeding unrest

Smith, Todd G.

doi:10.1177/0022343314543722

Cited by 122 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Emerging evidence suggests that food price shocks are associated with an increase in social unrest (Smith 2014, Bellemare 2015, Hendrix and Haggard 2015, Weinberg and Bakker 2015. Yet, the robust 'non-finding' presented here implies that so-called 'food riots' play out largely isolated from climatesensitive production dynamics in the affected countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…But this dynamic may not be unique to the pre-modern world. Indeed, several recent studies draw a causal arrow from food price shocks to urban social unrest in contemporary Africa (Berazneva and Lee 2013, Smith 2014, Bellemare 2015, and some also link the 2011 'Arab Spring' uprisings to peaks in international food prices (Johnstone andMazo 2011, Sternberg 2012, for a different perspective, see Sneyd et al 2013).…”

Section: Food Insecurity and Political Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Buhaug

Benjaminsen

Sjaastad

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

130

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Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Food Insecurity and Political Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Buhaug

Benjaminsen

Sjaastad

et al. 2015

Environ. Res. Lett.

130

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Higher prices may help fisher and fishery-linked households, but lead to discontent on the part of consumers, for whom higher prices constitute a loss of welfare. Higher food prices have also been linked to social unrest (Smith 2014, Bellemare 2015, Hendrix and Haggard 2015.…”

Section: The Natural Subsystem: Trophic Dynamics Of Fish Populationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria basin

Glaser¹,

Hendrix²,

Franck³

et al. 2019

E&S

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Civil conflict is the most prevalent form of armed conflict in the world today, but this significant driver of food and income security has been largely missing from studies of fisheries. Fisheries conflict is an example of complex dynamics operating in social-ecological systems. We theorize and document the existence of such a feedback loop between conflict in Uganda and fisheries in Lake Victoria. Civil war in northern Uganda resulted in mass human population displacement, which corresponded in time with increases in fishing effort in Lake Victoria. Subsequent changes in catch of Nile perch, the dominant commercial fishery, sparked armed conflict in the lake itself, at Migingo Island, between Uganda and Kenya. From this case study, we draw seven main conclusions. First, these correlation-based relationships are illustrative but not conclusive and we call for further empirical investigation. Second, the couplings between conflict and fishing subsystems are spatially asymmetric: conflict effects are diffuse in their links to broad changes in the fishery, whereas fishery effects may produce more localized conflict events. Third, and most relevant to conflict scholars, the drivers of fishing effort and catch may originate in different subsystems, but their changes and effects must be analyzed in concert. Fourth, the complex and path-dependent impacts of conflicts on natural resources in general, and fisheries in particular, highlights the urgent need for targeted surveys and more mechanistic understanding. Fifth, the open access nature of fisheries in Lake Victoria may exacerbate instabilities not present in other systems. Sixth, the diffuse and context-specific effects of conflicts on fisheries means models of fisheries management (e.g., stock assessment) should not incorporate conflict as a driver at this time. Finally, countries and their stakeholders should focus on diversification in employment for short term coping mechanisms during conflict as a means of shortcircuiting the conflict-fisheries feedback loop.

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“…temporary versus longterm) relate to the risk of violent conflict. Nuanced relationships between environmental changes and conflict have been found to operate through a host of mediating circumstances, including livestock market price volatility [27], rising costs for food [28][29][30], and preferable conditions for cattle grazing that attract hostile communities to common areas [31] or facilitate livestock relocation after a raid [32]. In contrast, livelihood diversification [33], and robust institutions for negotiating access to common resources such as pasture or cropland [34,35] are found to have pacifying effects on the risk of violence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya

Linke

Witmer

Ο’Loughlin

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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As global temperatures rise, drought-induced human relocation is expected to increase. Using original national survey data from Kenya, we investigate whether people who report relocating due to drought are more likely to be victims of violence than people who do not move. We also examine whether this migrant sample supports the use of violence at higher levels than the general population, conditional on their experiences. We measure the duration of relocation (temporary versus permanent) as well as the characteristics of the arrival area, including co-ethnic demographics. Controlling for many individual-level and contextual variables, we find that those who have relocated are consistently more likely to be victims of violence than those who have not. We also find that those who relocated temporarily support the use of violence at higher levels than the general population if and only if they are themselves victims of violence. Vulnerable migrant populations may be subject to violence as observational aggregate studies suggest, but they are not likely to be the sources of violence unless victimized first.

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Feeding unrest

Cited by 122 publications

References 45 publications

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria basin

The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya

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