Feeling the Heat: Adapting to Climate Change in the Middle East and Central Asia

Abstract

The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or crosscountry interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Climate and Cross-Border Migration

“…Translated into actual numbers, this result implies that 3 extra climate disasters per year (one standard deviation) could translate into 1/2 percent of the overall population leaving the country of origin during the five-year window. Our results reflect that climate change's impacts are disproportionately experienced by people in vulnerable situations, in line with previous evidence of the impact of climate change, such as reported in Duenwald et al (2022). In the robustness section we consider large disasters-defined as those with more than 100 deaths-to assess the importance of non-linearities due to large natural disasters.…”

Analysis of the Spatial Effect of Carbon Emissions on Chinese Economic Resilience in the Context of Sustainability

“…The estimation results of all the models in Table 5 are consistent with the original model, which means the robustness results of the abovementioned three aspects all demonstrate the fact that the estimation methods employed in this investigation are robust and reliable. In terms of the variables that were replaced, this paper substitutes the main explanatory variable with the carbon intensity deduced using coal energy, and the estimated the results are shown in model (1) in Table 5. In terms of transforming the spatial weight matrix, this study showed that the impact of carbon intensity on economic resilience was not only related to the distance between regions, but also to the regional economy.…”

“…The specific empirical test results are shown in Table 8. Model (1) in Table 8 shows the regression results without mediating variables, with a policy effect coefficient of 8.852. Models ( 2) and ( 3) show a mediating effect on the intensity of technology investments.…”

“…From 2023 to 2027, global near-surface temperatures will be 1.1 to 1.8 • C higher than the preindustrial revolution average, and there will be a further upward trend, posing many risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems, human health, food and water security, economic and social de-elopements, etc. [1]. Therefore, carbon reduction and green development have gradually become the main way for countries around the world to address global climate issues.…”

Climate security nexus: Climate inequality and food security between Middle East & North African Countries

“…Like other regions, MENA is subject to environmental problems and climate change. In the past decade, the region has witnessed more severe weather conditions, high temperatures, little precipitation, and drought (Duenwald et al, 2022). MENA has 11 of the 17 countries with the highest levels of water stress.…”