Felt Reports for Rapid Mapping of Global Earthquake Damage: The Doughnut Effect?

Bossu, Rémy; Landès, Matthieu; Roussel, Frédéric; Steed, Robert

doi:10.1785/0220170129

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The results of Hough and Martin (2021a) confirmed the result of past studies (e.g., Mak and Schorlemmer, 2016), that, apart from very strong shaking that may not be reported (Bossu et al, 2018), the likelihood that an individual will report their observations to the DYFI system depends strongly on the severity of shaking they experienced. Focusing on moderate earthquakes provides the opportunity to explore further the extent to which participation in the DYFI system may have been shaped over time by average household income.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Contributed Reports of Widely Felt Earthquakes in California, United States: If They Felt it, Did They Report it?

Hough

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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In a recent study, Hough and Martin (2021) considered the extent to which socioeconomic factors influence the numbers and distribution of contributed reports available to characterize the effects of both historical and recent large earthquakes. In this study I explore the question further, focusing on analysis of widely felt earthquakes near major population centers in northern and southern California since 2002. For most of these earthquakes there is a correlation between average household income in a postal ZIP code and the population-normalized rate of responses to the DYFI system. As past studies have demonstrated, there is also a strong correlation between DYFI participation and the severity of shaking. This first-order correlation can obscure correlations with other factors that influence participation. Focusing on five earthquakes between 2011 and 2021 that generated especially uniform shaking across the greater Los Angeles, California, region, response rate varies by two orders of magnitude across the region, with a clear correlation with demographics, and consistent spatial patterns in response rate for earthquakes 10 years apart. While there is no evidence that uneven DYFI participation in California impacts significantly the reliability of intensity data collected, the results reveal that DYFI participation is significantly higher in affluent parts of southern California compared to economically disadvantaged areas.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Contributed Reports of Widely Felt Earthquakes in California, United States: If They Felt it, Did They Report it?

Hough

2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…This is revealed by the strong correlation between the number of new users and the number of intensities 11 and 12 collected (Figures 1, 4). As mentioned before, these intensities values are automatically excluded during data processing because crowdsourcing is highly unlikely to work under such extreme circumstances, and so they are considered to result from tests or jokes (Bossu et al, 2018a). Although some users influenced by high emotional state may have reported such values in good faith, it reaffirms that these reports are not reliable enough to be integrated in situation maps (Bossu et al, 2017).…”

Section: Figure 4 | Topmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…intrinsic uncertainties of rapid earthquake damage scenarios (Bossu et al, 2016). A schematic pattern, named the "doughnut effect, " has been statistically identified for data collected by the EMSC where damaged zones are free or almost free of felt reports and app launches, or at least the local ratio of app launches amongst the locally installed apps is much lower for the same earthquake in damaged areas than in areas affected by lower shaking levels (Bossu et al, 2018a). While the absence of such a pattern is proof of the absence of significant damage, its existence is not a proof on its own of damage and can be due to local communication issues (Bossu et al, 2018a).…”

Section: From Crowdsourced Data To Situational Awarenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid Public Information and Situational Awareness After the November 26, 2019, Albania Earthquake: Lessons Learned From the LastQuake System

et al. 2020

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Bossu et al. Rapid Public Earthquake Information seismicity. Attempts to debunk prediction claims were difficult. We report on how this could be eased and possibly made more efficient by sharing among the different actors a clear, concise, pre-prepared statement in the local language, that explains the state of scientific knowledge and the difference between prediction, early warning, or forecasts.

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“…For potential future events, this strategy might allow oversampling the macroseismic field and modelling the intensity variability in each commune, except in localities with extensive damage (cf. the Doughnut Effect in Bossu et al, 2017) where field surveys would then be needed (as done by Sira, 2015).…”

Section: Intensity Attenuation Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The damaging character of shallow 20th century earthquakes in the Hainaut coal area (Belgium)

Camelbeeck

Noten

Lecocq

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Shallow, light to moderate magnitude earthquakes in stable continental regions can have a damaging impact on vulnerable surface constructions. In the coal area of the Hainaut province in Belgium, a century of shallow seismic activity occurred from the end of the 19th century until the late 20th century. This seismicity is the second largest source of seismic hazard in northwestern Europe, after the Lower Rhine Embayment. The present study synthesises the impact and damage caused by this unique shallow seismicity. Reviewing intensity data provided in official macroseismic surveys held by the Royal Observatory of Belgium, press reports, and contemporary scientific studies resulted in a complete macroseismic intensity dataset. The strong shaking of five seismic events with moment magnitudes Mw around 4.0, which occurred on 3 June 1911, 3 April 1949, 15 December 1965, 16 January 1966, and 28 March 1967, locally caused widespread moderate damage to buildings corresponding to maximum intensity VII in the EMS-98 scale. For 28 earthquakes, detailed macroseismic maps were created. Our study highlights the capability of shallow, small-magnitude earthquakes to generate damage. Subsequently, using the Hainaut intensity dataset, we modelled a new Hainaut intensity attenuation law and created relationships linking magnitude, epicentral intensity and focal depth. Using these relationships, we estimated the location and magnitude of pre-1985 earthquakes that occurred prior to deployment of the modern digital Belgian seismic network. Estimated focal depths allowed discriminating between two different types of earthquakes. Some events were very shallow, only a few hundred metres deep, suggesting a close link to mining activities. Other earthquakes, including the largest and most damaging events, occurred at depths greater than 2 km but no deeper than 6 km, which would exclude a direct relationship with mining, but yet still might imply a triggering causality. This work results in a new updated earthquake catalogue including 123 seismic events. Our attenuation modelling moreover suggests that current hazard maps overestimated ground motion levels in the Hainaut area due to the use of inadequate ground motion prediction equations. Our Hainaut attenuation model is hence useful to evaluate the potential impact of current and future, e.g. geothermal energy, projects in the Hainaut area and other regions with a similar geological configuration.

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Felt Reports for Rapid Mapping of Global Earthquake Damage: The Doughnut Effect?

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

Contributed Reports of Widely Felt Earthquakes in California, United States: If They Felt it, Did They Report it?

Contributed Reports of Widely Felt Earthquakes in California, United States: If They Felt it, Did They Report it?

Rapid Public Information and Situational Awareness After the November 26, 2019, Albania Earthquake: Lessons Learned From the LastQuake System

The damaging character of shallow 20th century earthquakes in the Hainaut coal area (Belgium)

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