Ultrafast pump-probe measurements of plasmonic nanostructures probe the nonequilibrium behavior of excited carriers, which involves several competing effects obscured in typical empirical analyses. Here we present pump-probe measurements of plasmonic nanoparticles along with a complete theoretical description based on first-principles calculations of carrier dynamics and optical response, free of any fitting parameters. We account for detailed electronic-structure effects in the density of states, excited carrier distributions, electron-phonon coupling, and dielectric functions that allow us to avoid effective electron temperature approximations. Using this calculation method, we obtain excellent quantitative agreement with spectral and temporal features in transient-absorption measurements. In both our experiments and calculations, we identify the two major contributions of the initial response with distinct signatures: short-lived highly nonthermal excited carriers and longer-lived thermalizing carriers. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.087401 Plasmonic hot carriers provide tremendous opportunities for combining efficient light capture with energy conversion [1][2][3][4][5] and catalysis [6,7] at the nanoscale [8][9][10]. The microscopic mechanisms in plasmon decays across various energy, length, and time scales are still a subject of considerable debate, as seen in recent experimental [11,12] and theoretical literature [13][14][15][16]. The decay of surface plasmons generates hot carriers through several mechanisms, including direct interband transitions, phonon-assisted intraband transitions, and geometry-assisted intraband transitions, as we have shown in previous work [17,18].Dynamics of hot carriers are typically studied via ultrafast pump-probe measurements of plasmonic nanostructures using a high-intensity laser pulse to excite a large number of electrons and measure the optical response as a function of time using a delayed probe pulse [11,[19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Various studies have taken advantage of this technique to investigate electron-electron scattering, electron-phonon coupling, and electronic transport [20,22,[26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. Figure 1 shows a representative map of the differential extinction cross section as a function of pump-probe delay time and probe wavelength. With an increase in electron temperature, the real part of the dielectric function near the resonant frequency becomes more negative, while the imaginary part increases [33]. This causes the resonance to broaden and blueshift at short times as the electron temperature rises rapidly, and then to narrow and shift back over longer times as electrons cool down, consistent with previous observations [34]. Taking a slice of the map at one probe wavelength reveals the temporal behavior of the electron relaxation [ Fig. 1(b)], whereas a slice of the map at one time gives the spectral response, as shown in Fig. 1(a) for a set of times relative to the delay time with maximum signal, t max ¼ 700 fs.Conventional analyses of pu...