Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand

Abstract

Since the early 1990s a number of researchers have put forward evidence of strong demographic effects on housing demands. More recently, a number of studies have pointed to the effect of housing market conditions on family formation. This implies that housing markets are influenced by population change, but also that the housing market conditions influence population change. In this paper, a model of demographic effects on the housing market that has been estimated on regional panel data will be used to explore these interrelationships. First, it is shown that the age effects identified in sub-national data are present also in cross-national data. Second, it is shown that high demographic pressure on house prices is associated with low fertility. The findings are discussed in relation to the Easterlin's hypothesis about the effects of cohort crowding on fertility.In Easterlin's model, cohort effects on earnings drive fertility shifts. The analysis presented here indicates that cohort effects in the housing market can be equally important. Finally, the estimated models are used to outline possible future trends in house prices and fertility. The results indicate that house price increases can slow down and that there can be some recovery from very low fertility rates.

Fertility Intentions and Residential Relocations

“…This may explain why many households relocate from expensive urban areas to more affordable suburbs or rural areas when the family grows (Kulu 2008). Research evidence shows a negative association between house prices and fertility (Malmberg 2012).…”

Editorial on the special issue “Geographies of Demographic Change: Theories and Narratives”

“…In the political sciences, demographic change is addressed in a twofold way. Political economists approach the economic consequences of population changes from a systemic perspective, for example by discussing and analysing their infl uence on housing markets (Malmberg 2012). The recently emerging fi eld of political demography addresses political change as a consequence of population dynamics (Goldstone et al 2012; Sánchez-Gassen 2013).…”

Storby – stabilitet og endring i botetthet og flytting

“…2013. Slike utfordringer kan ha privatøkonomiske konsekvenser, men også samfunnsmessige konsekvenser i form av redusert familieetablering og redusert antall barnefødsler (Malmberg 2012). Sammenhengen mellom sosial, økonomisk og geografisk mobilitet kan forklares av blant annet boligens kompleksitet som konsumgode og dens naere kobling til de sosioøkonomiske, politiske og fysiske omgivelsene.…”