Fertility decisions in the wake of COVID-19: a comprehensive review of influencing determinants and trends

Biswas, Dipon K.; Haq, Shah Md. Atiqul; Ahmed, Mahfuzuddin; Ahmed, Khandaker Jafor

doi:10.1007/s43545-023-00729-0

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…Finally, life planning decisions are central (Tasneem et al, 2023). Birth rates had already been falling slightly for a few years before the Covid-19 pandemic in Switzerland.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Le Vu,

Matthes,

Staub

2023

Preprint

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We follow population trends in the monthly birth rate in Switzerland almost up to the present and place the latest developments in a historical context. Birth rates in 2022 were the lowest since the 1870s, and the trend is continuing in 2023. The latest decline had already begun 1-2 years before Covid-19. Previous pandemics (1890, 1918, 1920, 1957) had led to a temporary decline in births ∽9 months after the epidemic peaks. With Covid-19, this appears more complex. During and shortly after the first two waves and shutdowns in 2020, there were more conceptions and thus excess birth rates in 2021, in all available subgroups except Italian-speaking Switzerland, and somewhat more pronounced among >30-year-old mothers and second parities. Possible reasons for the mini-boom include: The increased time at home during the shutdowns has – planned or not – led to more conceptions which has brought pregnancies forward; the corona virus was still circulat-ing too infrequently in this 1st phase of the pandemic to have a negative impact on pregnancies or fertility; at the end of the waves and shutdowns, the perceived end of the pandemic threat could have led to an optimistic mood and thus also more conceptions. The subsequent decline from January 2022 was stronger than the in-crease before. The first part of the decline in 2022 is most likely due to a negative rebound from the advance-ment of births in 2020/2021 and deliberately postponed pregnancies due to the start of the vaccination pro-gram. The second part of the decline in 2022 is associated with conceptions during the large Omicron wave in the winter of 2021/2022, when many people in Switzerland fell ill. In addition, prices have been rising and real wages falling since 2021, the global political situation has become more unstable, and a general change in values regarding the willingness to have children may also be underway. Following these observations at population level (with limited depth of variables), more in-depth studies must now follow to better under-stand the dynamic ups and downs in the birth rate in Switzerland in recent years.

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“…Finally, life planning decisions are central (Tasneem et al, 2023). Birth rates had already been falling slightly for a few years before the Covid-19 pandemic in Switzerland.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Le Vu,

Matthes,

Staub

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…They understandably yet problematically relied on comparing current fertility plans to retrospective measurements of prepandemic fertility ideation. These studies generally documented sharp downward adjustments of conception and fertility plans across various societies, albeit with differing magnitudes (see Safdari-Dehcheshmeh et al 2023 andTasneem et al 2023 for recent reviews). They moreover documented heterogeneities by age, sex, economic-and work-related factors, and perceptions of economic uncertainty.…”

Section: Fertility Ideationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility and Family Dynamics in the Aftermath of the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Nitsche,

Wilde

2024

Population & Development Rev

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When the COVID‐19 pandemic began in early 2020, speculation was rife both in public and academic spheres over its possible effects on birth rates and partnership behavior. Now, over four years later, we still know surprisingly little about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics. In this paper, we outline three main takeaways from the scientific literature produced on this topic in the past four years. We argue that (1) we still do not have enough data to answer basic questions about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics, (2) the data we do have suggest an unexpectedly incoherent and heterogeneous response, and (3) the estimated effects we do have are suspect since shifting and theoretically unexpected prepandemic fertility behavior made identifying a strict causal effect of the pandemic problematic.

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“…These containment measures had led to major disruptions in social and family life (Mayer, 2022; OECD, 2021a, 2021b). They also resulted in increased stress and relationship struggles (Bellani & Vignoli, 2022)—factors that are negatively associated with an intention to become pregnant (Manning et al, 2022; Tasneem et al, 2023). At the same time, economic support cushioned financial pressure and economic uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty

Winkler-Dworak,

Zeman,

Sobotka

2024

Preprint

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BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, birth rates in most higher-income countries first briefly declined and then shortly recovered, showing no common trends afterwards until early 2022, when they unexpectedly dropped. STUDY FOCUS: We analyse monthly changes in total fertility rates in higher-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a special focus on 2022, when birth rates declined in most countries. We consider three broader sets of explanatory factors: economic uncertainty, policy interventions restricting mobility and social activities outside the home, and the role of vaccination programmes. STUDY DESIGN, DATA: This study uses population-wide data on monthly total fertility rates adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects provided in the Human Fertility Database (HFD, 2023). Births taking place between November 2020 and October 2022 correspond to conceptions occurring between February 2020 and January 2022, i.e., after the onset of the pandemic but prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The data cover 26 countries, including 21 countries in Europe, the United States, Canada, Israel, Japan and the Republic of Korea. METHODS: First, we provide a descriptive analysis of the monthly changes in the total fertility rate (TFR). Second, we estimate the effects of the explanatory factors on the observed fertility swings using linear fixed effects (within) regression models. MAIN RESULTS: We find that birth trends during the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with economic uncertainty, as measured by increased inflation, the stringency of pandemic policy interventions, and the progression of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, whereas unemployment did not show any link to fertility during the pandemic. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our research is restricted to higher-income countries with relatively strong social support policies provided by the government as well as wide access to modern contraception. Our data do not allow analysing fertility trends by key characteristics, such as age, birth order and social status. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the first multi-country study of the drivers of birth trends in a later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the past, periods following epidemics and health crises were typically associated with a recovery in fertility. In contrast, our results show that the gradual phasing out of pandemic containment measures, allowing increased mobility and a return to more normal work and social life, contributed to declining birth rates in most countries. In addition, our analysis indicates that some women avoided pregnancy during the initial vaccination roll-out.

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Fertility decisions in the wake of COVID-19: a comprehensive review of influencing determinants and trends

Cited by 5 publications

References 98 publications

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

The remarkable ups and downs of birth rate in Switzerland 2020 to 2023 in a historical context

Fertility and Family Dynamics in the Aftermath of the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty

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