Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research

Balbo, Nicoletta; Billari, Francesco C.; Mills, Melinda

doi:10.1007/s10680-012-9277-y

Cited by 483 publications

(471 citation statements)

References 280 publications

(337 reference statements)

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“…The last decades have seen the postponement of age at first birth, reduction in parity, and lengthening of birth intervals 1, 2. Birth spacing has shown fluctuations, including shifts towards shorter intervals 3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpregnancy interval and perinatal outcomes across Latin America from 1990 to 2009: a large multi‐country study

Mignini

Carroli

Betrán

et al. 2015

BJOG

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ObjectiveTo determine the relationship of interpregnancy interval with maternal and offspring outcomes.DesignRetrospective study with data from the Perinatal Information System database of the Latin American Centre for Perinatology and Human Development, Uruguay.SettingLatin America, 1990–2009.PopulationA cohort of 894 476 women delivering singleton infants.MethodsDuring 1990–2009 the Perinatal Information System database of the Latin American Centre for Perinatology identified 894 476 women with defined interpregnancy intervals: i.e. the time elapsed between the date of the previous delivery and the first day of the last normal menstrual period for the index pregnancy. Using the interval 12–23 months as the reference category, multiple logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of the association between various interval lengths and maternal and offspring outcomes.Main outcome measuresMaternal death, pre‐eclampsia, eclampsia, puerperal infection, fetal death, neonatal death, preterm birth, and low birthweight.ResultsIn the reference interval there was 0.05% maternal death, 1.00% postpartum haemorrhage, 2.80% pre‐eclampsia, 0.15% eclampsia, 0.28% puerperal infection, 3.45% fetal death, 0.68% neonatal death, 12.33% preterm birth, and 9.73% low birthweight. Longer intervals had increased odds of pre‐eclampsia (>72 months), fetal death (>108–119 months), and low birthweight (96–107 months). Short intervals of <12 months had increased odds of pre‐eclampsia (aOR 0.80; 95% CI 0.76–0.85), neonatal death (aOR 1.18; 95% CI 1.08–1.28), and preterm birth (aOR 1.16; 95% CI 1.11–1.21). Statistically, the interval had no relationship with maternal death, eclampsia, and puerperal infection.ConclusionsA short interpregnancy interval of <12 months is associated with pre‐eclampsia, neonatal mortality, and preterm birth, but not with other maternal or offspring outcomes. Longer intervals of >72 months are associated with pre‐eclampsia, fetal death, and low birthweight, but not with other maternal or offspring outcomes.Tweetable abstractA short interpregnancy interval of <12 months is associated with neonatal mortality and preterm birth.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpregnancy interval and perinatal outcomes across Latin America from 1990 to 2009: a large multi‐country study

Mignini

Carroli

Betrán

et al. 2015

BJOG

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“…Finally, it is important to emphasize again that our effect sizes are very small, and there are many other factors that explain why people have children [46]. Indeed, it is remarkable that height shows any influence at all, given the vagaries of the mate choice and partnering processes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Does natural selection favour taller stature among the tallest people on earth?

et al. 2015

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The Dutch are the tallest people on earth. Over the last 200 years, they have grown 20 cm in height: a rapid rate of increase that points to environmental causes. This secular trend in height is echoed across all Western populations, but came to an end, or at least levelled off, much earlier than in The Netherlands. One possibility, then, is that natural selection acted congruently with these environmentally induced changes to further promote tall stature among the people of the lowlands. Using data from the LifeLines study, which follows a large sample of the population of the north of The Netherlands (n ¼ 94 516), we examined how height was related to measures of reproductive success (as a proxy for fitness). Across three decades , height was consistently related to reproductive output (number of children born and number of surviving children), favouring taller men and average height women. This was despite a later age at first birth for taller individuals. Furthermore, even in this low-mortality population, taller women experienced higher child survival, which contributed positively to their increased reproductive success. Thus, natural selection in addition to good environmental conditions may help explain why the Dutch are so tall.

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“…There are so many factors suggested by the literature to influence fertility tempo and quantum of individuals, social groups, countries and regions that we had to omit some of the less prominent or relatively poorly documented ones (see also below, see Balbo et al 2013 for another recent review). Of the factors we discussed, the influence of gender equality and gender relations in different domains (education achievement, labour participation, household division of tasks, childcare) on fertility intentions, timing and level still seems to be inadequately understood, especially for men.…”

Section: Key Messagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

Basten

Sobotka

Zeman

et al. 2014

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries AbstractThis paper discusses results of the global survey of experts on the future of low fertility in low-fertility countries. The survey was coordinated by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital as a part of an effort to produce global argumentbased population projections by age, sex and level of education. First we give an overview of fertility changes in major low-fertility regions. Next we outline main theoretical arguments and review a wide range of factors contributing to fertility change and variation in contemporary low-fertility settings. Subsequently, we present survey results based on 184 assessments of over 170 experts analysing 41 countries with currently low or aroundreplacement fertility and Israel. These experts provided forecasts of period total fertility rate (TFR) in 2030 and 2050, estimated 80% confidence interval of their forecast and assessed the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 factors. We also compare expert-derived projections of the TFR trends with the forecasts formulated by the UN World Population Prospects in 2010. The survey results in combination with the feedback provided by the invited experts then serve as a basis for formulating a set of projection scenarios for all low fertility countries up until 2050, which are additionally expanded (in a simpler form) through 2200. We present these scenarios and discuss past changes in fertility differences by level of education and their potential future trends in main regions. Presented analyses and projections indicate that a global convergence of fertility to around replacement level, envisioned in the UN projections, appears unlikely. Continuing differentiation combined with partial convergence in fertility towards lower levels is suggested as a more plausible scenario, with East Asia (including China) as well as Russia expected to have sustained very low fertility below 1.5 through 2050.

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Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research

Cited by 483 publications

References 280 publications

Interpregnancy interval and perinatal outcomes across Latin America from 1990 to 2009: a large multi‐country study

Interpregnancy interval and perinatal outcomes across Latin America from 1990 to 2009: a large multi‐country study

Does natural selection favour taller stature among the tallest people on earth?

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

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