Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Falling and Stalling

Abstract

This paper uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the current status of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa, including the extent to which fertility decline has stalled. Among the two dozen countries covered by multiple surveys, 22 have initiated fertility transition, and a third of these countries have experienced stalling of fertility decline. We study the links between changes in contraceptive use, fertility preferences, and socioeconomic development (as reflected in changes in women's education, infant and child mortality, and real per-capita economic growth) and fertility decline and stalling. Changes in the measures of socioeconomic development are all related to the likelihood of stalling. We also analyze determinants of age-specific fertility rates in urban and rural places, and assess future prospects for fertility decline in the region. Progress in increasing women's educational attainment and in reducing infant and child mortality are identified as key factors contributing to sustained fertility decline.

On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

“…There is a fair bit of literature suggesting that fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa has been comparatively slow relative to other parts of the developing world (Casterline 2001;Bongaarts 2008;Shapiro and Gebreselassie 2008;Bongaarts and Casterline 2013;Shapiro et al 2013). The Bongaarts and Casterline (2013) piece is especially comprehensive and persuasive in this regard.…”

Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview

“…There is no one single definition of the stalls, and the sampling of transition countries depends on the chosen definition: the fertility level (e.g., below 7 children as chosen by Shapiro and Gebresselassie (2008) or between 2.5 and 5 children according to Bongaarts (2006)) or (for instance) when contraceptive prevalence is above 10% among married women (Bongaarts 2008). These authors also differ in their criterion for a stall; for example Bongaarts (2008) classifies stalls as non-significant declines in fertility (p<0.05), whereas Shapiro and Gebreselassie (2008) only consider the absence of a decline between two measurements, and Garenne's (2008) criterion is that the fertility slope should have changed significantly from negative to nil or positive. Other studies consider yet other criteria, resulting in different sets of stalling countries.…”

Stylized Facts and Review of the Relation between Contraceptive Use, Delinquency and Age Structure in Nigeria, and It’s Implications for Demographic Dividend

“…Different studies demonstrated that the average number of children will decline when women have more say in the family [14] [15] [16]. Gender equality is viewed as one of the most crucial tools for changing reproductive behavior.…”