Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria

Abstract

We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

“…The resulting prototype unified growth framework builds on Galor and Weil (2000), Cervellati and Sunde (2005), and Soares (2005). 1 The model features differential fertility across different education groups, similar to de la Croix and Doepke (2003), and produces qualitative predictions that are in line with the stylized facts. 2 The paper contributes to the existing literature of quantitative studies of longterm development.…”

Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice

“…Maruyama and Yamamoto (2010) find that the expansion in the variety of consumption goods reduces the relative price of a composite of differentiated goods compared to child-rearing costs and thus decreases fertility rates. Foreman-Peck and Zhou (2021) argue that lower mortality induces more investment in children and young people. Due to real wage growth, this change, eventually, leads to fertility decline.…”

Unexpected longevity, intergenerational policies, and fertility

“… 1 There are also studies which explain the historical fertility decline from the Malthusian equilibrium using changes in human capital. See, for example, Galor and Weil ( 2000 ), Soares ( 2005 ), Bucci and Prettner ( 2020 ), and Foreman-Peck and Zhou ( 2021 ). …”