Context
High levels of the phosphate regulating hormone, fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), associate with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but little is known about its relationship with adverse outcomes in the much larger population of patients with earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Objective
Evaluate FGF23 as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with CKD.
Design, Setting and Participants
A prospective study of 3,879 participants with CKD stages 2 – 4 who enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort between June 2003 and September 2008.
Main Outcome Measures
All-cause mortality and ESRD.
Results
At enrollment, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 42.8 ± 13.5 ml/min/1.73m2, and median FGF23 was 145 (interquartile range [IQR] 96 – 239) reference units/ml (RU/ml). During a median follow-up of 3.5 (IQR 2.5 – 4.4) years, 266 participants died (20.3/1000 person-years) and 410 reached ESRD (33.0/1000 person-years). Higher FGF23 levels independently associated with a greater risk of death in adjusted analyses of FGF23 on a continuous scale (hazard ratio [HR] per SD of lnFGF23, 1.5; 95%CI 1.3 – 1.7) or in quartiles (quartile 1, reference; quartile 2, HR 1.3; 95%CI 0.8 – 2.2; quartile 3, HR 2.0; 95%CI 1.2 – 3.3; quartile 4, HR 3.0; 95%CI 1.8 – 5.1). FGF23 was not independently associated with ESRD in adjusted analyses of the entire cohort, however, the effect was modified by eGFR (P for interaction = 0.005), which was the strongest predictor for ESRD. FGF23 independently associated with significantly greater risk of ESRD among participants with eGFR 30 – 44 (HR 1.3 per SD of lnFGF23; 95%CI 1.04 – 1.6) and ≥ 45 (HR 1.7; 95%CI 1.1 – 2.4), but not < 30 ml/min/1.73m2.
Conclusion
Elevated FGF23 is an independent risk factor for ESRD in patients with relatively preserved kidney function and for mortality across the spectrum of CKD.