Fifty years of primary production measurements in the Baltic entrance region, trends and variability in relation to land-based input of nutrients

Rydberg, Lars; Ærtebjerg, Gunni; Edler, Lars

doi:10.1016/j.seares.2006.03.009

Cited by 40 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The POLCOMS-ERSEM system has been used extensively in several NWS model domains in the context of understanding model uncertainty (Holt et al, 2005;Lewis et al, 2006;Allen et al, 2007a), understanding regional processes (Proctor et al, 2003;Blackford et al, 2008;Holt et al, 2004) and for operational oceanography (Siddorn et al, 2007).…”

Section: Model Description Validation and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The oceanic components have been identified as dominating nutrient budgets in this region by several model based studies (Proctor et al, 2003;Vermaat et al, 2008;Artioli et al, 2008;Patsch and Kuhn, 2008), while Hydes et al (2004) notes the importance of oceanic nutrient input to the NWS in an analysis of data from five cruises west of Great Britain and long time series observations in the Irish Sea. identify variability in oceanic input (characterised by the North Atlantic Oscillation) as a significant source of variability in North Sea nutrients, but also note the inflow is a substantial source of uncertainty in their budgets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

et al. 2012

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Abstract. In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5-10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080-2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5-10 %) compared with a decrease of 0-20 % in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

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Section: Model Description Validation and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

et al. 2012

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“…However, in some areas of the Baltic Sea, e.g., the Kattegat and Belt Sea region, a decreasing trend in primary production since 1980 (Rydberg et al 2006) and a slower increase in nutrient levels in recent decades, as compared with the 1970s-1990s (Papush and Danielsson 2006), are signs of ecosystem recovery, possibly in response to reduced point sources and agricultural pollution (Olli et al 2011). In other areas, such as many coastal bays, this trend cannot be seen (Duarte et al 2009, Gustafsson et al 2012.…”

Section: Ecological Consequences Of the Delaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping with persistent environmental problems: systemic delays in reducing eutrophication of the Baltic Sea

Varjopuro¹,

Andrulewicz²,

Blenckner³

et al. 2014

E&S

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“…18.4 Simulated (line) and observed winter nutrient concentrations (dots) in the surface layer of the central Baltic Sea Fig. 18.5 Changes in phytoplankton primary production in the Kattegat and the Belt Sea (Rydberg et al 2006) the sedimentation rate increased by 70 % between the late 1920s and 1980s in the Baltic Proper, whereas Hansson and Gustafsson (2012) reported an increase of only 25 % after 1950. A larger increase was obtained from model simulations which yielded a rough doubling of sedimentation since the 1950s (Hansson and Gustafsson 2012) and an almost fourfold increase since 1900 .…”

Section: Past Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Impacts—Marine Biogeochemistry

Schneider

Eilola

Lukkari

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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Marine biogeochemistry deals with the budgets and transformations of biogeochemically reactive elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus. Inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus compounds are the major nutrients and control organic matter (biomass) production in the surface water. Due to various anthropogenic activities, the input of these nutrients into the Baltic Sea has increased drastically during the last century and has enhanced the net organic matter production by a factor of 2-4 (eutrophication). This has led to detrimental oxygen depletion and hydrogen sulphide production in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. Model simulations based on the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) indicate that current eutrophication and thus extension of oxygen-depleted areas cannot be reversed within the next hundred years by the proposed nutrient reduction measures. Another environmental problem is related to decreasing pH (acidification) that is caused by dissolution of the rising atmospheric CO 2 . Estimates indicate a decrease in pH by about 0.15 during the last 1-2 centuries, and continuation of this trend may have serious ecological consequences. However, the concurrent increase in the alkalinity of the Baltic Sea may have significantly counteracted acidification.

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Fifty years of primary production measurements in the Baltic entrance region, trends and variability in relation to land-based input of nutrients

Cited by 40 publications

References 14 publications

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

Coping with persistent environmental problems: systemic delays in reducing eutrophication of the Baltic Sea

Environmental Impacts—Marine Biogeochemistry

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