Fighting an uphill battle: the recovery of frogs in Australia's Wet Tropics

McKnight, Donald T.; Alford, Ross A.; Hoskin, Conrad J.; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Greenspan, Sasha E.; Zenger, Kyall R.; Bower, Deborah S.

doi:10.1002/ecy.2019

Cited by 26 publications

(45 citation statements)

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“…Litoria serrata recovered more rapidly and has returned to roughly its predecline abundance; whereas L. nannotis recovered more slowly, first reappearing at upland sites in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and has not returned to its predecline abundance in many areas (Richards & Alford, ). Nevertheless, breeding populations of L. nannotis are present at the headwaters of many of the streams from which they had been extirpated (McKnight, Alford, et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The return of the frogs: The importance of habitat refugia in maintaining diversity during a disease outbreak

et al. 2019

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Recent decades have seen the emergence and spread of numerous infectious diseases, often with severe negative consequences for wildlife populations. Nevertheless, many populations survive the initial outbreaks, and even undergo recoveries. Unfortunately, the long‐term effects of these outbreaks on host population genetics are poorly understood; to increase this understanding, we examined the population genetics of two species of rainforest frogs (Litoria nannotis and Litoria serrata) that have largely recovered from a chytridiomycosis outbreak at two national parks in the Wet Tropics of northern Australia. At the wetter, northern park there was little evidence of decreased genetic diversity in either species, and all of the sampled sites had high minor allele frequencies (mean MAF = 0.230–0.235), high heterozygosity (0.318–0.325), and few monomorphic markers (1.4%–4.0%); however, some recovered L. nannotis populations had low Ne values (59.3–683.8) compared to populations that did not decline during the outbreak (1,537.4–1,756.5). At the drier, southern park, both species exhibited lower diversity (mean MAF = 0.084–0.180; heterozygosity = 0.126–0.257; monomorphic markers = 3.7%–43.5%; Ne = 18.4–676.1). The diversity patterns in this park matched habitat patterns, with both species having higher diversity levels and fewer closely related individuals at sites with higher quality habitat. These patterns were more pronounced for L. nannotis, which has lower dispersal rates than L. serrata. These results suggest that refugia with high quality habitat are important for retaining genetic diversity during disease outbreaks, and that gene flow following disease outbreaks is important for re‐establishing diversity in populations where it was reduced.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The return of the frogs: The importance of habitat refugia in maintaining diversity during a disease outbreak

et al. 2019

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“…There is evidence that some of the affected species are moving back into areas they had disappeared from due to chytrid (McKnight et al. , Scheele et al. ), and it is likely that in the future they will continue to recolonize up the elevation gradient.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some cases, the chytrid fungus has extirpated isolated populations, and in these cases, the population was removed from the model by reducing the probability in the affected areas to zero. There is evidence that some of the affected species are moving back into areas they had disappeared from due to chytrid (McKnight et al 2017, Scheele et al 2017, and it is likely that in the future they will continue to recolonize up the elevation gradient. However, we could not build this into the models due to a lack of data on the rate or potential ultimate extent of this recolonization.…”

Section: Post-workhop Model Refiningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species’ fates under climate change

Reside

Critchell

Crayn

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine‐scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species’ model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under‐ or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under‐performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species’ distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine‐scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.

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“…Technology is emerging that may provide options for permanent recovery with the implementation of gene banking and translocation of disease-resistant animals but these actions require investment and proof of concept (Kouba et al 2013). There is evidence that some populations afflicted by disease-related declines can recover over time, often through recruitment from nearby persisting populations (Scheele et al 2014a;McKnight et al 2017;Voyles et al 2018). Actions aimed at rescuing individuals during the initial disease epidemic may therefore save species (Scheele et al 2014b).…”

Section: Stage 5: Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Island of opportunity: can New Guinea protect amphibians from a globally emerging pathogen?

Bower

Lips

Amepou

et al. 2019

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (chytrid) has caused the most widespread, disease‐induced declines and extinctions in vertebrates recorded to date. The largest climatically suitable landmass that may still be free of this fungus is New Guinea. The island is home to a sizeable proportion of the world's known frog species (an estimated 6%), as well as many additional, yet‐to‐be‐described species. Two decades of research on the chytrid fungus have provided a foundation for improved management of amphibian populations. We call for urgent, unified, international, multidisciplinary action to prepare for the arrival of B dendrobatidis in New Guinea, to prevent or slow its spread within the island after it arrives, and to limit its impact upon the island's frog populations. The apparent absence of the fungus in New Guinea offers an opportunity to build capacity in advance for science, disease surveillance, and diagnosis that will have broad relevance both for non‐human animal health and for public health.

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Fighting an uphill battle: the recovery of frogs in Australia's Wet Tropics

Cited by 26 publications

References 0 publications

The return of the frogs: The importance of habitat refugia in maintaining diversity during a disease outbreak

The return of the frogs: The importance of habitat refugia in maintaining diversity during a disease outbreak

Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species’ fates under climate change

Island of opportunity: can New Guinea protect amphibians from a globally emerging pathogen?

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