Fighting for a name on the ballot: constituency-level analysis of nomination violence in Zambia

Goldring, Edward; Wahman, Michael

doi:10.1080/13510347.2017.1394844

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Although most quantitative work on election violence has studied cross-national variation (Daxecker, 2014; Fjelde & Höglund, 2016; Fjelde, 2020; Hafner Burton, Hyde & Jablonski, 2014; Straus & Taylor, 2012; Taylor, Pevehouse & Straus, 2017; von Borzyskowski, 2019), several recent studies have concentrated on subnational dynamics of election-related conflict (e.g. Daxecker, 2020; Dercon & Guitérrez-Romero, 2012; Goldring & Wahman, 2018; Malik, 2018; Reeder & Seeberg, 2018). However, these studies do not theorize that competition plays a markedly different role at the subnational level than it does at the cross-national level.…”

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confidence: 99%

Pre-election violence and territorial control: Political dominance and subnational election violence in polarized African electoral systems

Wahman

Goldring

2020

Journal of Peace Research

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Cross-national research on African electoral politics has argued that competition increases the prospects for pre-election violence. However, there is a dearth of systematic research on the effect of political competition on pre-election violence at the subnational level. We theorize that in African democracies characterized by competition at the national level but low subnational competitiveness (polarization), violence is often a manifestation of turf war and a tool to maintain and disrupt political territorial control. Consequently, contrary to expectations derived from the cross-national literature, pre-election violence is more likely in uncompetitive than competitive constituencies. Locally dominant as well as locally weak parties have incentives to perpetrate violence in uncompetitive constituencies. For locally dominant parties, violence is a tool to shrink the democratic space in their strongholds and maintain territorial control. For locally weak parties, violence can disturb the dominance of the opponent and protect their presence in hostile territory. We hypothesize that pre-election violence will be particularly common in opposition strongholds. In such locations, ruling parties can leverage their superior repressive resources to defend their ability to campaign, while the opposition can use their local capacity to reinforce the politics of territoriality. We test our hypotheses with original constituency-level election violence data from the 2016 Zambian elections. Data come from expert surveys of domestic election observers and represent a novel way of measuring low-level variations in election violence. Our analysis shows patterns of pre-election violence consistent with our theory on pre-election violence as a territorial tool.

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confidence: 99%

Pre-election violence and territorial control: Political dominance and subnational election violence in polarized African electoral systems

Wahman

Goldring

2020

Journal of Peace Research

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“…The 2016 election was a clear break with the peaceful tradition of Zambian elections. Violence occurred as political parties were conducting nominations (Goldring and Wahman, 2018), in the general election, and after the elections. zems recorded violence in 66 out of 156 constituencies.…”

Section: Violence and Intimidationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Democracy and Electoral Politics in Zambia

Kim

2021

Canadian Journal of African Studies / Revue canadienne des étud

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“…Pre-election violence can increase the odds of victory of its instigator through the polarization of the electorate ( Dercon & Gutiérrez-Romero, 2012 ; Horowitz, 2001 ; Wilkinson, 2004 ) and the demobilization of his opponent’s voters by means of intimidation, displacement, and death ( Bratton, 2008 ; Collier & Vicente, 2014 ; Klopp, 2001 ; Steele, 2011 ). 2 It not only affects nationwide official elections, but also intraparty contests ( Goldring & Wahman, 2018 ; Bech Seeberg, Wahman & Skaaning, 2018 ; Reeder & Seeberg, 2018 ). In parallel to incentives to campaign peacefully, violence likely accompanies contested campaigns ( Hafner-Burton, Hyde & Jablonski, 2013 ; Salehyan & Linebarger, 2015 ; Wilkinson, 2004 ), in particular those led by incumbents ( Taylor, Pevehouse & Straus, 2017 ; Rauschenbach & Paula, 2019 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

Müller-Crepon

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.

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Fighting for a name on the ballot: constituency-level analysis of nomination violence in Zambia

Cited by 13 publications

References 33 publications

Pre-election violence and territorial control: Political dominance and subnational election violence in polarized African electoral systems

Pre-election violence and territorial control: Political dominance and subnational election violence in polarized African electoral systems

Democracy and Electoral Politics in Zambia

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

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