Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American                Emerging Economies

Martı́nez, Juan Carlos; Santisó, Javier

doi:10.1177/0192512103024003005

Cited by 52 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The diversity in confidence conceptualizations, stemming primarily from a lack of adequate theoretical development, along with the limited research effort expended on confidence research, is greatly disconcerting given that consumer confidence is a fundamental premise of marketing. For instance, it is widely recognized that at the heart of market exchange a question of confidence exists (Martínez & Santiso, ), and “confidence in business transactions today is a necessary starting ground” (Sellerberg, , p. 39). Thus the study of confidence is not merely an accretion to consumer behavior research, but rather an indispensable and integral ingredient to an understanding of consumer behavior.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Redefining Confidence for Consumer Behavior Research

Simintiras

Yeniaras

Oney

et al. 2014

Psychology and Marketing

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Although quintessential to market exchange and trade, consumer confidence evokes little interest from marketing scholars, and largely persists as an untapped dimension in consumer behavior research. Nevertheless, the dearth of confidence research provides a most useful foundation for investigating how it is both relevant and informative to the study of consumer decision making and behavior. Following a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations of confidence, an integrated conceptualization is mapped out, and examples of consumer behavior research areas deemed to benefit from a more honed study of confidence are highlighted

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Redefining Confidence for Consumer Behavior Research

Simintiras

Yeniaras

Oney

et al. 2014

Psychology and Marketing

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“…Brazil's 2002 presidential election experience would appear to validate this construction. In that case, where frequent polling data were available, Martinez and Santiso (2003) demonstrate a high correlation between Lula's lead in the polls and increases in spreads on Brazilian debt during the months leading up to Lula's election.…”

Section: Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 88%

Democracy's Spread: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries

2003

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We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle ("PBC") considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds. Pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. Bond spreads for right-wing (leftwing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbent partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects.

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“…Looking first at the incentive side of the issue, the propensity for states to become involved in ISDS is expected to vary with the ideology and policy preferences of political leaders. Given the negative reaction of financial markets to the mere prospect of a leftist electoral victory in the region (Martínez and Santiso 2003), the international political economy generates strong pressures for leftist leaders to eschew policies that threaten investors or otherwise undermine business confidence in their countries. Although this prediction resembles those advanced by Popa-Dorobantu (2010) and Pinto (2013), the underlying logic is very different.…”

Section: Explaining Variations In Dispute Involvement Across the Lac mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment Treaty Arbitration in Latin America

Remmer

2019

Lat. American Res. Rev.

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This study analyzes variations in the incidence of state involvement in investment treaty arbitration in Latin America and the Caribbean over the 1987–2014 period. Its main contributions are fourfold. First, by focusing on the balance of incentives and opportunities facing political leaders and foreign investors, the study establishes a new basis for understanding the reasons actors opt for the risks and uncertainties of international arbitration instead of resolving international investment disputes via alternative means. Second, by restricting the focus of research to the Latin American region, the study is able to move beyond the analysis of relatively time-invariant structural and institutional conditions and crude indicators to address the role played by the preferences of political actors. Third, by disaggregating disputes by sector of investment, the analysis documents the variable role of ideology and electoral incentives in investment treaty arbitration. Finally, by underlining the distinctiveness of the Latin American experience with investment treaty arbitration, the study offers new insights into the global backlash against investment treaty arbitration, which has gone farther in the region than anywhere else. Overall, the results underline the potential payoffs of breaking down the international experience with investment treaty arbitration into regional patterns to obtain a deeper and more granular understanding of the political economy of investor-state dispute settlement.

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Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies

Cited by 52 publications

References 42 publications

Redefining Confidence for Consumer Behavior Research

Redefining Confidence for Consumer Behavior Research

Democracy's Spread: Elections and Sovereign Debt in Developing Countries

Investment Treaty Arbitration in Latin America

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