Financial stability and independence of municipalities in Ukraine

Abstract

The article assesses the local budgets independence using statistiсal methods and includes system dynamics research with a simplified explanatory model of aggregated municipal deposits. Using the method of analytical equalization, the share of local budgets’ own funds was calculated, as they are a source of financial stability and independence.A system dynamics hypothesis and model revealed important feedback mechanisms that play a role in financial autonomy and general financial well-being of municipalities – a higher deficit drives a higher debt that drives a higher deficit back; lower local tax revenues will bring higher transfers in the upcoming year; negative population growth decreases consumption, labor force, and other indicators, etc. The general reason for low financial autonomy lies in high dependency on transfers and income-based taxes, while taxes that are classified as local lay on businesses, which need more support. Some aspects revealed the need for deeper research and addition to the model – municipal borrowing and property markets. The model has been validated and built confidence through various tests, but yet it has serious assumptions, limitations, and aspects outside of the model boundary. Nevertheless the model has a potential for expansion and solving mode issues regarding this system or to be recalibrated for specific reasons and areas. The research can be used by the municipalities in Ukraine and needs to be updated with new data and expanded.
 JEL classification: E62, H21, H61, H72

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