Finding Colour in Conformity  Part II—Reflections on Structured Professional Judgement and Cross-Cultural Risk Assessment

Shepherd, Stephane M.; Spivak, Benjamin

doi:10.1177/0306624x20928025

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…If a forensic risk tool is culturally augmented, then predictive accuracy for relevant outcomes needs to be consistent with established, orthodox risk instruments; clients and agencies would be at a disservice if predictive validity was sacrificed for face validity. Shepherd and Spivak (2021) further caution that the inclusion of ethnoculturally specific variables that are unique to a group and their circumstances (e.g., cultural erosion, experiences of racism), runs the risk of (a) criminalizing such experiences as they become a variable that is now a marker of elevated recidivism risk and (b) potentially inflating the risk levels of individuals from that ethnocultural group since given that they more than likely possess the experience or characteristic.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Olver,

Stockdale,

Helmus

et al. 2024

Psychological Bulletin

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Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in correctional systems internationally, reflecting a history of systemic racism and colonial oppression, and the practice of risk assessment with this population has been a focus of legal and sociopolitical controversy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk assessment literature comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) groups. We retrieved 91 studies featuring 22 risk tools and 15 risk/need/cultural domains (N = 59,693, Indigenous; N = 237,729, non-Indigenous/White) and four documents identifying culturally relevant factors. Most measures demonstrated moderate predictive validity but often had significant ethnoracial differences, particularly for static measures. The Service Planning Instrument/Youth Assessment Screening Inventory, Level of Service Inventory youth variants, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Youth Version, and the Violence Risk Scale and its Sexual Offense version had the strongest predictive validity and least ethnoracial discrepancy. The Static Factors Assessment and Dynamic Factors Identification and Analysis-Revised had the weakest predictive validity. For Indigenous persons, the strongest individual predictors of recidivism were low education/employment, substance abuse, antisocial pattern, and poor community functioning, while mitigating factors that predicted decreased recidivism were measures of risk change (i.e., from culturally integrated programs combining mainstream and traditional healing approaches), cultural engagement/ connectedness, and protective factors. In practice, static measures need to be supplemented with dynamic ones, and assessors should select measures with at least moderate predictive validity and ideally the least ethnoracial bias. These conclusions are tempered by the quantity and quality of the literature coupled with the circumstance that some study authors have coauthored tools in this review. Public Significance StatementMost risk assessment measures can predict reoffending with a reasonable (i.e., moderate) level of accuracy for Indigenous people undergoing risk assessments in the justice system; however, these measures often have better accuracy when used with non-Indigenous (and primarily White) clients, particularly static measures that are heavily based on criminal history. The "best" potential measures tend to be dynamic tools, as these have less prediction bias, can drive services, measure reductions in risk (e.g., with culturally integrated treatment programs), and inform release decisions and community supervision strategies. Of note, other unmeasured or non-risk-relevant factors (e.g., overpolicing, aggressive prosecution) can inflate recidivism estimates for Indigenous peoples and decrease predictive validity of risk measures, which should be considered when conducting risk assessments. Careful, critical examination of current risk measures and further research is necessary to increase fair, humane, and ethical use of these measures with Indigenous clients in forensic, cor...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Olver,

Stockdale,

Helmus

et al. 2024

Psychological Bulletin

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Moreover, one practical implication of these findings may be focused on identifying the risk factors that contribute less to mean score differences (substance abuse and personality/behavior in this study), and weighting them more heavily in risk assessment than the rest of the risk factors (Skeem & Lowenkamp, 2016). However, other researchers note that efforts to culturally amend instruments (such as including new items or weighting them differently) could paradoxically reduce accuracy and increase bias (Shepherd & Spivak, 2020). That is, these modifications may lower the predictive validity for this specific group, or on the contrary may increase it while decreasing the accuracy for subgroups within this cultural group (e.g., Roma females).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

Gomis‐Pomares

Villanueva

Adrián

2021

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol

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Despite the increasing interest in the accuracy of youth risk assessment tools, the amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest. For this reason, the main goal of this study was to assess the predictive validity and disparate impact of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority. The participants consisted of 88 Roma youth offenders and 135 non-Roma youth offenders, aged between 14 and 17 years old. Their risk of recidivism was assessed by means of the YLS/CMI Inventory and their recidivism rate was obtained from the Juvenile Justice Department. Results showed that the Inventory presented slightly lower predictive validity for the Roma group. Moreover, Roma juveniles presented higher risk scores and lower strength scores than non-Roma juveniles. These results supported the idea that professionals must therefore be aware of these cultural differences in predictive validity and the existent potentiality for disparate impact.

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“…The implementation of policies that focus on dynamic risk and needs rather than static items will more accurately adhere to evidence-based practices that reduce recidivism. It is crucial that modifications to risk assessment instruments be made based on evidence (Shepherd & Spivak, 2021). To this end, research has already indicated that dynamic risk factors are promising predictors of recidivism (Clarke et al, 2017; Lloyd et al, 2020; Perrault et al, 2017; Ward & Fortune, 2016; Yukhnenko et al, 2019); the current study adds to this growing body of evidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contribution of Static and Dynamic Factors to Recidivism Prediction for Black and White Youth Offenders

Miller

Campbell

Papp

et al. 2021

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol

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Scholars have presented concerns about potential for racial bias in risk assessments as a result of the inclusion of static factors, such as criminal history in risk assessments. The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which static factors add incremental validity to the dynamic factors in criminogenic risk assessments. This study examined the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a sample of 1,270 youth offenders from a medium-sized Midwestern county between June 2004 and November 2013. Logistic regression was used to determine the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI and the individual contribution of static and dynamic domains of the assessment. Results indicated that the static domain differentially predicted recidivism for Black and White youth. In particular, the static domain was a significant predictor of recidivism for White youth, but this was not the case for Black youth. The dynamic domain significantly predicted recidivism for both Black and White offenders, and static risk factors improved prediction of recidivism for White youth, but not for Black youth.

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Finding Colour in Conformity Part II—Reflections on Structured Professional Judgement and Cross-Cultural Risk Assessment

Cited by 10 publications

References 18 publications

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

The Contribution of Static and Dynamic Factors to Recidivism Prediction for Black and White Youth Offenders

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