2008
DOI: 10.1136/jech.2007.064030
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Finding the real case-fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza

Abstract: Clearly, if such a CF rate were to be sustained in a pandemic, H5N1 would present a truly dreadful scenario. A concerted and dedicated effort by the international community to avert a pandemic through combating avian influenza in animals and humans in affected countries needs to be a global priority.

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Cited by 84 publications
(63 citation statements)
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“…24 when H5N1 and 2009 pdm were recombined at equal MOI of 1 PFU/cell, the H5N1 was highly dominant, so the authors increased the MOI ratio to 5∶1. Clearly this is a significant study, because a combination of H5N1's high case fatality rate with the 2009 pdm quick transmission ability could cause a significant public health crisis (25,26). Because the initial probability distribution for a segment coming from a given strain is no longer (1∕2, 1∕2), but is now (1∕6, 5∕6), the full entropy formula is used for the initial distribution.…”
Section: Comparison To Other Experimental Settings and Segmented Virumentioning
confidence: 99%
“…24 when H5N1 and 2009 pdm were recombined at equal MOI of 1 PFU/cell, the H5N1 was highly dominant, so the authors increased the MOI ratio to 5∶1. Clearly this is a significant study, because a combination of H5N1's high case fatality rate with the 2009 pdm quick transmission ability could cause a significant public health crisis (25,26). Because the initial probability distribution for a segment coming from a given strain is no longer (1∕2, 1∕2), but is now (1∕6, 5∕6), the full entropy formula is used for the initial distribution.…”
Section: Comparison To Other Experimental Settings and Segmented Virumentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Although previous studies reported that rearing chicken was not associated with the prevalence of enteric illness in Kampala [7], risk of the infection with H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Kampala was potentially very high and it could pose a serious health risk. The case-fatality (CF) rate of HPAI was estimated to 14-33% under pandemic conditions [24] and HPAI is known to be transmitted rapidly [37].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…23 Virology experts, such as Palese, Bouvier, and Taubenberger believe the rate to be overestimated (Bouvier 2012;Palese and Wang 2012). 24 The true case fatality rate of the unmodified H5N1 virus is estimated to be between 1% and 33% (Li et al 2008;Morens et al 2012). In comparison, the fatality rate of the 1918 pandemic virus was estimated to be 2.5% (Li et al 2008).…”
Section: )mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…24 The true case fatality rate of the unmodified H5N1 virus is estimated to be between 1% and 33% (Li et al 2008;Morens et al 2012). In comparison, the fatality rate of the 1918 pandemic virus was estimated to be 2.5% (Li et al 2008). The worst human influenza pandemic in history so far, raged from 1918 to 1919 and claimed an estimated 50 million lives (Taubenberger and Morens 2006).…”
Section: )mentioning
confidence: 99%