Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Abstract

climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (pA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nationwide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The highvelocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied pAs by the end of this century. thus, in pA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable. Measurements of the magnitude and geographic variation of climatic changes across the network of protected areas (PAs) provide relevant information for conservation planning, enabling the targeting of management in the PAs most at risk in the face of climate change 1-6. One approach for assessing the climate-change-based risks is the climate change velocity, a metric which defines the speed and direction of climate shifts over a given area 4. Although the majority of the climate velocity studies have been conducted in terrestrial environments, there is now an increasing amount of climate velocity research also addressing marine environments 4,7,8. Technically, climate velocity is a generic metric which nevertheless provides ecologically relevant information for climate-wise conservation planning 2,4,9. Such information is particularly useful for identifying regions and PAs where climate conditions are changing most rapidly, exposing them to high rates of climate displacement 3. Climate velocity has typically been used to assess the climatic risks for the persistence of species and populations 9 , but in cases where rapid changes in the climate affect ecological engineer and keystone species, profound impacts can be carried over to community structure and ecosystem functions 2. Considering PAs as such, climate velocity assessments can be used to identify PAs which face substantial difficulties in retaining ecological conditions that promote present-day biodiversity. Moreover, climate velocity analyses are important in regions which would need new stepping-stone conservation areas to support species movements to complement the PA network, or con...

Plant Diversity Patterns and Conservation Implications under Climate-Change Scenarios in the Mediterranean: The Case of Crete (Aegean, Greece)

“…The post-2020 biodiversity protection agenda [105] will focus on expanding the existing PAs [106,107]. Many PAs are exposed to spillover effects due to land-cover change [108] and are facing increased climate-change-based risks [109]. It would thus be prudent to aim the conservation efforts at areas with overlaps among PAs and climatic refugia, simultaneously characterised by high diversity and EDGE scores (including the taxa with the highest EDGE scores).…”

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios

“…An expansion of the existing protected areas [ 136 , 137 ], as is included in the post-2020 biodiversity protection agenda [ 11 ] could potentially triple the species’ range under protection, as well as that of phylogenetic/functional units [ 138 ]. Many protected areas are also facing increased climate change based risks [ 139 ]. In the era of rapid biodiversity decline [ 140 ], it is necessary to investigate if different facets of biodiversity are included in existing protected areas [ 141 ] and to identify new areas of high evolutionary and conservation value.…”

High-latitude EU Habitats Directive species at risk due to climate change and land use

“…The ability of Habitats Directive species to achieve and retain a favourable conservation status can be challenging in an era of accelerating global changes. Modelling studies have suggested that many Habitats Directive species populations will be negatively affected by climate change (Araujo et al, 2011;Normand et al, 2007), and notable future alterations in climate conditions in N2000 areas may occur (Heikkinen et al, 2020;Nila and Hossain, 2019), introducing turnovers in species communities (Thuiller et al, 2014;Virkkala and Lehikoinen, 2017). Importantly, negative impacts of climate change may be boosted by interactions with adverse land use (Hülber et al, 2020;Jetz et al, 2007;Oliver and Morecroft, 2014;Segan et al, 2016).…”

“…However, effective incorporation of climate change-land use adaptation strategies in the national-scale management of at-risk species, including Habitats Directive species, would benefit from further attention on three issues: (i) relevant spatial scale of vulnerability assessments, (ii) vulnerability differences between different local populations, and (iii) species-specific impacts of land use, including both negative and positive impacts. Most vulnerability studies have been conducted at a rather coarse scale and overlook local changes in the topoclimate (Heikkinen et al, 2020;Rapacciuolo et al, 2014). Ideally, scrutinizing fine-resolution climatic and land-use risks may help in detecting occurrences of the vulnerable species and directing conservation and management resources to sites providing maximal potential benefits (Crossman et al, 2012;Rannow et al, 2014;Suggitt et al, 2018), but experience on this is sparse.…”

“…For species sensitivity and adaptability, comparable (occurrence-level) data rarely exist. Climate change vulnerability was assessed as the climatic exposure of local populations based on topoclimate velocity data (Heikkinen et al, 2020). Negative and positive land uses for local populations was measured as the cover of deteriorated habitats or unsuitable land use versus remaining suitable habitats or conservation areas in the vicinity of species occurrences (Hamilton et al, 2013;Hansen and DeFries, 2007) and wider landscape (Jules and Shahani, 2003;Segan et al, 2016).…”