Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.ecological impacts | economic impacts | species interactions | Olea europaea | desertification

Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems

“…Such tools include models for predicting potential geographical distributions, seasonal phenology, and population dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales (Sutherst et al 2011). For example Ponti et al (2014) estimated the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the olive fruit fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. In their assessment of climate change impact on olive agroecosystems, they analyzed trophic interactions, which include the effects of climate change on olive phenology, growth, and yield, and on the dynamics and impact of its obligate major pest, the olive fruit fly and associated natural enemies.…”

Evaluation of olive flowering at low latitude sites in Argentina using a chilling requirement model

“…Various aspects of olive tree response to global warming have been modelled for the Mediterranean Basin including flowering and other phenological stages (e.g., Osborne et al, 2000;De Melo-Abreu et al, 2004;García-Mozo et al, 2010), insect damage and olive yields (Ponti et al, 2014), and crop evapotranspiration (Tanasijevic et al, 2014). It has been estimated that only fairly large changes in temperature (i.e., an increase of 3°C) would lead to a significant increase in abnormal flowering events for Spanish and Portuguese sites (De Melo-Abreu et al, 2004).…”

Response of maize and olive to climate change under the semi-arid conditions of southern Spain

“…For FF period and within the current olive cultivated areas in Andalusia, the average advance in flowering date was equal to 17 days compared with the B period. This advance is in agreement to and (Ponti et al, 2014;Tanasijevic et al, 2014) although the lack of local calibration, the absence of uncertainty assessment and the reduced number of olive cultivars analysed has limited their applicability.…”