Fire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China

Dios, Víctor Resco de; Yao, Yi; Camprubí, Àngel Cunill; Boer, Matthias M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32013-9

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In addition, NEC, NC, and CC were the main regions where wildfires occurred in mainland China. The spatial distribution of burned area (BA) is consistent with the results of many independent studies [24,43,44] but not consistent with the spatial distribution of fire frequency [45]. These results indicate the BA in the north of China may be larger than that in the south, but the frequency is lower.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China

Yang,

Zeng,

Tigabu

et al. 2023

Fire

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Understanding the impact of drought on fire dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential effects of climate change on wildfire activity in China. In this study, we present a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) models linking burned area (BA) during mainland China’s fire season from 2001 to 2019, across seven regions, to concurrent drought, antecedent drought, and time trend. We estimated burned area using Collection 6 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectradiometer (MODIS) and drought indicators using either the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) or the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). Our findings indicate that the wildfire season displays a spatial variation pattern that increases with latitude, with the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), and Central China (CC) regions identified as the primary areas of wildfire occurrence. Concurrent and antecedent drought conditions were found to have varying effects across regions, with concurrent drought as the dominant predictor for NEC and Southeast China (SEC) regions and antecedent drought as the key predictor for most regions. We also found that the Northwest China (NWC) and CC regions exhibit a gradual decrease in burned area over time, while the NEC region showed a slight increase. Our multiple linear regression models exhibited a notable level of predictive power, as evidenced by the average correlation coefficient of 0.63 between the leave-one-out cross-validation predictions and observed values. In particular, the NEC, NWC, and CC regions demonstrated strong correlations of 0.88, 0.80, and 0.76, respectively. This indicates the potential of our models to contribute to the prediction of future wildfire occurrences and the development of effective wildfire management and prevention strategies. Nevertheless, the intricate relationship among fire, climate change, human activities, and vegetation distribution may limit the generalizability of these findings to other conditions. Consequently, future research should consider a broad range of factors to develop more comprehensive models.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China

Yang,

Zeng,

Tigabu

et al. 2023

Fire

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“…These large fires are typically monitored due to their significant impacts (however it is worth noting that ONFIRE BA grid cells can also be affected by fires of less than 100 hectares 89 ). Also, while caution is necessary when relying solely on BA, it remains a useful tool for understanding the overall magnitude and spatial extent of fire events 90 as it provides a quantitative measure that can be easily compared across different fire events and regions.…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

Gincheva,

Pausas,

Edwards

et al. 2024

Sci Data

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We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245.

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“…However, some factors may limit our ability to develop a comprehensive understanding of wildfire regimes. First, wildfire activity is recognized as a growing problem in many parts of the world, but its definition remains elusive and difficult to quantify on large spatial scales (Resco de Dios et al, 2022). In this paper, land cover types such as forests, shrubs, and grassland are used to extract wildfire fire points from the fire point data.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating decline of wildfires in China in the 21st century

Lian,

Xiao,

Feng

et al. 2024

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Global wildfires have increased in frequency and intensity, especially in temperate regions, in the context of global warming. However, the spatiotemporal characteristics of wildfire frequency and intensity are still not well understood. Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 (C6) wildfire products during 2003–2022, here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary characteristics of the frequency and intensity of wildfires in China. The main conclusions are: (1) Over the past 20 years, the wildfire frequency and fire radiative power (FRP) have declined at rates of –1920/year (p < 0.001) and –76492 MW/year (p < 0.001), respectively, showing a highly significant downward trend, with declines of up to 63 and 81%. (2) Wildfires in China show a single peak pattern of high incidence in winter and spring, with the most frequent in March, followed by February and April. (3) The overall spatial distribution of wildfires in China is characterized by a bimodal distribution, with more in the south and less in the north. Wildfires are most abundant but less intense in the southern region(SR), fewer but most intense in the northeastern region(NER), and significantly influenced by El Niño in the southwestern region(SWR), with significant regional differences in wildfires in China. (4) The average FRP of wildfire spots presented a decreasing trend from 47 MW/spot in 2003 to only 25 MW/spot in 2022. This may be due to more dispersed wildfires, rather than concentrated wildfires. (5) The frequency and FRP of wildfires showed an overall negative correlation with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Drought events (negative SPEI) have a significant effect on wildfires, especially in SR. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of current fire suppression policies in China in terms of disaster prevention and mitigation, and further provides data to further explore and analyze the impact of wildfires on the regional environment.

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Fire activity as measured by burned area reveals weak effects of ENSO in China

Cited by 7 publications

References 14 publications

Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China

Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China

A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

Accelerating decline of wildfires in China in the 21st century

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