Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

Pinto, Miguel M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Turkman, K. F.

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018

Cited by 43 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…In this study, meteorological parameters consist of gridded daily values at 12 UTC of 2 meter temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and 24 hours cumulated precipitation that were obtained from the ERA -Interim reanalysis dataset (Dee et al, 2011) issued by ECMWF. As described in Pinto et al (2018), the original ERA-Interim data were re-projected onto the normalized geostationary projection (NGP) of Meteosat Second Gen eration (MSG) (EUMETSAT, 1999), with an average pixel size of about 4 km × 4 km over Portugal. Daily values of DSR for Portugal were then obtained by averaging over all grid points located within the study area.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Nunes¹,

DaCamara²,

Turkman³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events that have serious impacts at the socio-economic and environmental levels and dramatic consequences associated with the loss of lives and the destruction of the landscape. Accordingly, seasonal forecasts are required to assist fire managers, thus contributing to alter the historically-based purely reactive response. In this context, we present and discuss a statistical model to estimate the probability that the total burned area during summer will exceed a given threshold. The statistical model uses meteorological information that rates the accumulation of thermal and vegetation stress. Outlooks for the 39-year study period (1980–2018) show that, when the statistical model is applied from May 26 to June 30, out of the six severe years, only one year is not anticipated as potentially severe and, out of the six weak years, only one is not anticipated as potentially weak. The availability of outlooks of wildfire potential with an anticipation of up to one month before the starting of the fire season, such as the one proposed here, may serve to provide clear directions for the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Nunes¹,

DaCamara²,

Turkman³

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…The Mediterranean region is characterized by the frequent occurrence of summer wildfires representing an environmental and socioeconomic burden. Some Mediterranean countries (or provinces) are particularly prone to Large Fires (LF), namely Portugal, Galicia, Greece, and southern France [30][31][32]. On the other hand, the Mediterranean basin corresponds to a major hotspot of climate change, and anthropogenic warming is expected to increase the total burned area due to fires in Mediterranean Europe [33].…”

Section: B Identification Of Fire Weather Types Associated To the Ocmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Extreme Climatic Events on the Agricultural and Forestry Systems—Project Impecaf

Ramôa

Gouveia

Vieira

et al. 2019

The 5th Ibero-American Congress on Entrepreneurship, Energy, Environment and Technology - CIEEMAT 2019

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The IMPECAF is a research project that started at the end of 2018 and aims to deepen the knowledge on weather extremes, particularly droughts and heat waves, which affect agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Iberian Peninsula. Despite these events presenting different temporal scales, their simultaneous occurrence can intensify the observed impacts. In addition, these impacts may extend over large areas affecting different ecosystems. This project aims at transferring knowledge on fundamental research in meteorology for the agricultural and forestry sectors, and it is expected that the results may be an input in the decision-making process of farmers. To achieve this aim, appropriate measures will be developed to mitigate the impact of these extreme weather events in the forestry and agricultural sectors. This will be followed by an approach that ensures the involvement of stakeholders since the beginning of the project and even after its conclusion.

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“…The Tavira wildfire was one of the largest fires in recent years (excluding the megaevents of the last fire season of 2017), and most of the variables (e.g., total burned area, time to extinction) are well documented and available from official authorities (ANPC, 2012;Viegas et al, 2012). This fire event was also studied by Pinto et al (2016), providing a suitable setup for testing the CA model. In addition, comparing the simulation results to this baseline scenario allowed us to identify and formulate the most promising model modifications and refinements to be incorporated in the simulation algorithm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management

Freire

DaCamara

2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Cellular automata have been successfully applied to simulate the propagation of wildfires with the aim of assisting fire managers in defining fire suppression tactics and in planning fire risk management policies. We present a cellular automaton designed to simulate a severe wildfire episode that took place in Algarve (southern Portugal) in July 2012. During the episode almost 25 000 ha burned and there was an explosive stage between 25 and 33 h after the onset. Results obtained show that the explosive stage is adequately modeled when introducing a wind propagation rule in which fire is allowed to spread to nonadjacent cells depending on wind speed. When this rule is introduced, deviations in modeled time of burning (from estimated time based on hot spots detected from satellite) have a root-mean-square difference of 7.1 for a simulation period of 46 h (i.e., less than 20 %). The simulated pattern of probabilities of burning as estimated from an ensemble of 100 simulations shows a marked decrease out of the limits of the observed scar, indicating that the model represents an added value to help decide locations of where to allocate resources for fire fighting.

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Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on fire radiative power derived from Meteosat

Cited by 43 publications

References 32 publications

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Impacts of Extreme Climatic Events on the Agricultural and Forestry Systems—Project Impecaf

Using cellular automata to simulate wildfire propagation and to assist in fire management

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